for Sunday, 18 January 2015 [2:34 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 2:30 PM PhT (06:30 GMT) Sunday 18 January 2015
Next Update: Sunday Evening, 18 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) has maintained its strength as it continues with its northwesterly track traversing along the eastern sides of Bicol Region...moving at slow pace.
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Polilio Islands, Northern Aurora, Eastern Isabela and Southeastern Cagayan - through Monday morning (Jan 19).
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northern Quezon, Southern Aurora, Eastern parts of Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province and Apayao, and Central and Northern parts of Cagayan - through Monday morning (Jan 19).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Camarines Norte, Northern part of Southern Quezon, Most parts of Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rest of Nueva Ecija, Easternmost part of Pangasinan, Benguet, Southeastern part Of Ilocos Sur, Eastern Abra, Kalinga, Rest areas of Cagayan, Apayao, Mt. Province, Ifugao and Nueva Vizcaya - through Monday morning (Jan 19).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): The Bicol Region incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Marinduque, Southern Quezon, Northernmost part of Masbate and the Northern parts of Northern Samar - through Sunday afternoon (Jan 18)..
- Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 0.5-1.5 m (1.5-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Central Bicol until Sunday evening. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Quezon and Rest of Bicol (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Jan 18...0300 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over San Miguel Bay (near 13.(N 123.2E)
About: 40 km southeast of Daet, Camarines Norte...or 35 km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 705 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-Northwest @ 14 kph
Towards: Western Phil. Sea-Quezon Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move northwest to north-northwest during the next 12 hours...then will move generally northward throughout the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be emerging over the western part of the Philippine Sea north of Bicol and east of Polilio Islands this afternoon...and move towards the southeastern coasts of Northern Luzon through Monday morning.
TS Mekkhala (Amang) will weaken rapidly throughout the forecast outlook as it enters in an unfavorable environment...decaying into a Tropical Depression (TD) on Monday and eventually into a dissipating or remnant Low Pressure Area over Babuyan Channel on Tuesday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Monday morning.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens into a TD as it nears the southeastern coasts of Northern Luzon...about 55 km south of Palanan, Isabela [8AM JAN 19: 16.5N 122.4E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Traversing the eastern coasts of Central and Northern Luzon and dies into an area of weak low pressure over Babuyan Channel...about 40 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM JAN 20: 18.5N 122.5E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Jan 18, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.9º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km NNW of Iriga City
Distance 2: 65 km WNW of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 3: 115 km WNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 45 km ENE of Ragay, CamSur
Distance 5: 40 km SE of Daet, CamNorte
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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