Sunday, January 18, 2015

TS MEKKHALA Update #011


for Saturday, 17 January 2015 [9:34 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Saturday 17 January 2015
Next Update: Saturday Afternoon, 17 January 2015

Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) has strengthened further into a near Typhoon intensity of 110 kph while moving closer to the shores of Eastern Samar...posing a serious threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the southern shores of Eastern Samar between 1:00 to 4:00 PM today, Saturday (Jan 17).

This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte incl. Tacloban City, Masbate incl. Ticao Is., Sorsogon, Albay incl. Burias Is., Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Camarines Norte, Eastern part of Southern Quezon, Eastern Capiz, Northeastern Iloilo, Northernmost part of Negros, Central part of Leyte and Biliran Is., and Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern Leyte, Central part of Cebu, Central part of Negros, central part of Iloilo, rest of Capiz, Aklan, Northern Antique, Romblon incl. Tablas Is., Marinduque, eastern portions of Laguna and Rizal, central part of Quezon and rest of Quezon - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Eastern Samar and NE part of Northern Samar - This morning until tonight, Saturday (Jan 17).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Central and Southern Bicol incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Rest of Samar, Northern and Central Leyte, Northernmost part of Cebu, and Romblon - This morning until tonight, Saturday (Jan 17)..
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 0.5-1.5 m (1.5-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Samar and northeastern part of Northern Samar today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Rest of Eastern Visayas, Central and Southern Bicol incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Northernmost parts of Cebu and Panay, and Romblon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).


As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Jan 17...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.0N 127.3E)
About: 220 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 250 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center...Gustiness: 140 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 950 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 45 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Eastern Visayas


TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move west-northwestward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the western part of the Philippine Sea this morning...and will make landfall along the southern shores of Eastern Samar, just south of Borongan City this afternoon. This evening, Mekkhala, after crossing Samar Island - shall emerge over Samar Sea...passing along the southern coasts of Masbate through early Sunday morning. The storm will then pass over Romblon by late Sunday morning...and shall be passing across Norhern Mindoro on Sunday afternoon through the night.

TS Mekkhala (Amang) will weaken after it makes landfall due to land interaction...and will rapidly weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) during the remainder of the forecast outlook as it moves in an area of unfavorable environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Monday early morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Asid the southern shores of central-western Masbate...about 25 km south-southwest of Masbate City [2AM JAN 18: 12.1N 123.5E @ 85kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it crosses Northern Mindoro...emerging over the West Philippine Sea...about 110 km west-northwest of Puerto Galera [2AM JAN 19: 13.6N 119.9E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure over the West Philippine Sea...about 420 km west of Manila [2AM JAN 20: 14.5N 117.2E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Jan 17, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.0º N Lat 127.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 295 km E of Ormoc City
Distance 3: 320 km ESE of Calbayog City
Distance 4: 420 km SE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 430 km ESE of Masbate City









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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