for Sunday, 18 January 2015 [9:07 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Sunday 18 January 2015
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 18 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) has made its second landfall along Rapu-Rapu Island-Malinao Area in Albay and is now starting to traverse the Bicol Region via Camarines Sur...expected to pass over or very close to Metro Naga between 8-10 AM this morning. Torrential rains and gusty winds not exceeding 100 km/hr continues to be felt across the region.
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Catanduanes, Most parts of Camarines Provinces, Albay, and Northern Sorsogon - until Sunday evening (Jan 18).
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Samar Provinces, Masbate incl. Ticao Is., Eastern part of Southern Quezon, and the rest of Bicol Region - through Sunday evening (Jan 18).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Panay, Leyte Provinces and Biliran Is., Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands, Romblon incl. Tablas Is., Marinduque, eastern portions of Laguna and Rizal, and rest of Quezon - through Sunday afternoon (Jan 18).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): The Bicol Region incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Marinduque, Southern Quezon, Northernmost part of Masbate and the Northern parts of Northern Samar - through Sunday afternoon (Jan 18)..
- Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 0.5-1.5 m (1.5-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Bicol Region through Sunday morning. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Rest of Eastern Visayas, and Eastern Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Jan 18...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over Malinao, Albay (near 13.4N 123.7E)
About: 35 km north of Legazpi City, Albay...or 60 km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 705 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 13 kph
Towards: Camarines Provinces
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move in a wobbling, northwest to west-northwest track during the next 12 hours...then will move generally northwesterly to north throughout the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will cross Camarines Sur this morning...passing over the eastern part of Southern Quezon this afternoon. This storm will be over Lamon Bay by tonight...and shall be making another landfall over Northern Quezon by early Monday. By Tuesday early morning, Mekkhala shall be over Benguet.
TS Mekkhala (Amang) will continue to weaken rapidly throughout the forecast outlook due to land interaction...decaying into a Tropical Depression (TD) on Monday and eventually into a dissipating or remnant Low Pressure Area over Benguet on Tuesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 45 kph on Monday.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a TD after traversing Southern Quezon...makes landfall over Northern Quezon...about 15 km south of Infanta, Quezon [2AM JAN 19: 14.7N 121.6E @ 45kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Traversing Central and Northern Luzon as it dies into an area of weak low pressure over Benguet...about 45 km east of Baguio City [2AM JAN 20: 16.3N 121.0E @ 30kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Jan 18, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.4º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km E of Iriga City
Distance 2: 45 km S of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 3: 60 km WSW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 105 km ESE of Ragay, CamSur
Distance 5: 115 km SE of Daet, CamNorte
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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