Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD MEKKHALA (AMANG) Update #018

for Monday, 19 January 2015 [2:40 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 018
Issued at: 2:30 AM PhT (18:30 GMT) Monday 19 January 2015
Next Update: Mid-Monday Morning, 19 January 2015

MEKKHALA (AMANG) weakens into a Tropical Depression after passing over Polillo Island a few hours ago...now moving near the coast of Baler, Aurora...prepares to make its Final Landfall.

This cyclone will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the northern and eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..

Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Polilio Islands, Northern Aurora, Eastern Isabela and Southeastern Cagayan - through Monday morning (Jan 19).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Quezon, Southern Aurora, Eastern parts of Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province and Apayao, and Central and Northern parts of Cagayan - through Monday morning (Jan 19).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT today, Jan 19...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over Baler Bay (near 15.5N 121.7E)
About: 35 km south-southeast of Baler, Aurora...or 75 km east-northeast of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 700 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: North-Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: North @ 19 kph
Towards: Aurora

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move northward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TD Mekkhala (Amang) will be making landfall over Aurora early Monday morning...and will cross the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains. It will eventually dissipate into an area of low pressure over Cagayan on Monday evening.

TD Mekkhala (Amang) will continue to weaken rapidly throughout the forecast outlook as it moves over the land mass of Northern Luzon...dissipating into a remnant Low Pressure Area over Cagayan on Monday evening. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 30 kph on Monday evening.

The following is the 1-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipates into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) while moving across Cagayan Province...about 55 km north-northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8PM JAN 19: 18.0N 122.0E @ 30kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Jan 18, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.5º N Lat 121.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km SSW of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 80 km N of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 3: 120 km NE of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 155 km SE of Baguio City
Distance 5: 200 km NW of Daet, Camarines Norte

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD MEKKHALA (AMANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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