for Friday, 16 January 2015 [10:25 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 9:30 PM PhT (13:30 GMT) Friday 16 January 2015
Next Update: Saturday Early Morning, 17 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) continues to accelerate as it digs more to the west-southwest...increasing its threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the northern shores of Eastern Samar between 2:00 to 5:00 PM tomorrow, Saturday (Jan 17).
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
RAINFALL
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte incl. Tacloban City, Masbate incl. Ticao Is., Sorsogon, Albay incl. Burias Is., Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Camarines Norte, Eastern part of Southern Quezon, Eastern Capiz, Northeastern Iloilo, Northernmost part of Negros, Central part of Leyte and Biliran Is., and Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern Leyte, Central part of Cebu, Central part of Negros, central part of Iloilo, rest of Capiz, Aklan, Northern Antique, Romblon incl. Tablas Is., Marinduque, eastern portions of Laguna and Rizal, central part of Quezon and rest of Southern Quezon - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of not more than 100 kph): Northern and Eastern Samar - beginning late Saturday morning (Jan 17) until Saturday evening.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Jan 16...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the west central part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.3N 129.1E)
About: 405 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 445 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 675 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 26 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Eastern Visayas
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move west to west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...turning more west-northwesterly on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the western part of the Philippine Sea on Saturday morning...and will make landfall along the northern shores of Eastern Samar, just north of Borongan City by Saturday afternoon. On Saturday evening, Mekkhala shall traverse Eastern and Western Samar...exiting Samar Sea as it passes very near Ticao Island by early Sunday morning...and passing in between Burias and Romblon Islands on Monday morning through the afternoon.
TS Mekkhala (Amang) may keep its strength within the next 24 hours...with a possible brief intensification before it makes landfall over Eastern Samar...and will rapidly weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) during the remainder of the forecast outlook as it moves in an area of unfavorable environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Sunday afternoon.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength...shifts slightly to west-northwest as it bears down the northern coast of Eastern Samar, preparing to make landfall...about 40 km northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM JAN 17: 11.8N 125.7E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the southern coast of Marinduque...weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 55 km north of Romblon [2PM JAN 18: 13.1N 122.3E @ 55kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipates into an area of low pressure after crossing the Cape Verde Passage...emerges over the West Philippine Sea, just west of Lubang Island...about 155 km west-southwest of Manila [2PM JAN 19: 13.9N 119.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
ADDITIONAL DISTANCES
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Jan 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.3º N Lat 129.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 365 km ENE of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 370 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 505 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 610 km ESE of Masbate City
Distance 5: 585 km SE of Sorsogon City
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MEKKHALA (AMANG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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