for Sunday, 18 January 2015 [2:07 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Thursday 15 January 2015
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 15 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) now emerging over San Bernardino Strait and will cross Sorsogon and Albay by early Sunday morning...continues to weaken after crossing the land mass of Northern Samar. This storm will continue to bring bad weather across the Bicol Peninsula today.
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Samar Provinces, Masbate incl. Ticao Is., Sorsogon, Albay incl. Burias Is., Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Eastern part of Southern Quezon. - through Sunday afternoon (Jan 18).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Panay, Leyte Provinces and Biliran Is., Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands, Romblon incl. Tablas Is., Marinduque, eastern portions of Laguna and Rizal, and rest of Quezon - through Sunday afternoon (Jan 18).
- Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Northern Samar and Southeastern Bicol - tonight through early tomorrow morning, Sunday (Jan 18).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Bicol incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Northern parts of Easterna and Western Samar. - tonight through early tomorrow morning, Sunday (Jan 18)..
- Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 0.5-1.5 m (1.5-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Samar and Southeastern Bicol tonight through early Sunday morning. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Rest of Eastern Visayas, Rest of Bicol incl. Burias and Ticao Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT today, Jan 17...1500 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over San Bernardino Strait (near 12.7N 124.5E)
About: 25 km northwest of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 65 km southeast of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 705 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 55 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 12 kph
Towards: Sorsogon-Southern Albay Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move in a wobbling, northwestward track during the next 12 hours...then will continue throughout the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will cross Southern Bicol early Friday...crossing Ragay Gulf on Sunday afternoon on its way to Southern Quezon. This storm will over Lamon Bay through Sunday evening...and shall be slowly traversing the agricultural heartland of Central Luzon through Monday evening.
TS Mekkhala (Amang) will continue to weaken rapidly throughout the forecast outlook due to land interaction. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Tuesday.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens further after traversing Southwestern Bicol and Southern Quezon...emerging over Lamon Bay...about 55 km northeast of Lucena City [8PM JAN 18: 14.1N 121.9E @ 75kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Crosses Central Luzon as it downgrades into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 40 km south-southeast of Tarlac City [8PM JAN 19: 15.6N 120.5E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...about 190 km west-northwest of Baguio City [8PM JAN 20: 16.9N 118.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Jan 17, 2015
Location of Center: Near 12.7º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km SE of Legazpi City
Distance 2: 105 km NE of Masbate City
Distance 3: 105 km SSE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 145 km SE of Iriga City
Distance 5: 175 km SE of Metro Naga
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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