for Saturday, 17 January 2015 [3:40 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 3:30 AM PhT (19:30 GMT) Saturday 17 January 2015
Next Update: Saturday Morning, 17 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) has strengthened rapidly while continues to track west-southwestward, closer to the shores of Eastern Samar...now a serious threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the northern shores of Eastern Samar between 2:00 to 5:00 PM today, Saturday (Jan 17).
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Samar Provinces, Northern Leyte incl. Tacloban City, Masbate incl. Ticao Is., Sorsogon, Albay incl. Burias Is., Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Camarines Norte, Eastern part of Southern Quezon, Eastern Capiz, Northeastern Iloilo, Northernmost part of Negros, Central part of Leyte and Biliran Is., and Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Southern Leyte, Central part of Cebu, Central part of Negros, central part of Iloilo, rest of Capiz, Aklan, Northern Antique, Romblon incl. Tablas Is., Marinduque, eastern portions of Laguna and Rizal, central part of Quezon and rest of Quezon - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Eastern Samar and NE part of Northern Samar - This morning until tonight, Saturday (Jan 17).
- Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Central and Southern Bicol incl. Burias and Ticao Islands, Rest of Samar, Northern and Central Leyte, Northernmost part of Cebu, and Romblon - This morning until tonight, Saturday (Jan 17)..
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT today, Jan 16...1500 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.1N 128.0E)
About: 290 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 325 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 795 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern Visayas
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move west to west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...maintaining its motion on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the western part of the Philippine Sea Saturday morning...and will make landfall along the northern shores of Eastern Samar, just north of Borongan City by Saturday afternoon. On Saturday evening, Mekkhala, after crossing Samar Island - shall emerge over Samar Sea...passing over Ticao-Masbate Area by early Sunday morning. The storm will then pass just north of Romblon by late Sunday morning...and shall be passing along the Cape Verde Passage on Sunday evening.
TS Mekkhala (Amang) may still strengthen just a little bit, before it makes landfall within the next 15 hours...and will rapidly weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) during the remainder of the forecast outlook as it moves in an area of unfavorable environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Sunday evening.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Just along the shores of Western Samar...turns west-northwest...about 10 km west of Calbayog City, Samar [8PM JAN 17: 12.1N 124.5E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it crosses the Cape Verde Passage...about 20 km east-southeast of Puerto Galera [8PM JAN 18: 13.5N 121.2E @ 55kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure after passing over Lubang Island...emerges over the West Philippine Sea...about 225 km west-southwest of Manila [8PM JAN 19: 13.9N 119.0E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Jan 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.1º N Lat 128.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 370 km E of Ormoc City
Distance 3: 385 km ESE of Calbayog City
Distance 4: 485 km SE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 495 km ESE of Masbate City
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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