for Thursday, 15 January 2015 [10:00 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday 16 January 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 16 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) has intensified and accelerated during the past 6 hours as it continues to move generally westward over the central part of the Philippine Sea...remains a threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the northern shores of Eastern Samar between 4 to 7 PM on Saturday (Jan 17).
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern Samar, northern parts of Eastern and Western Samar, Masbate incl. Ticao Is., Sorsogon, Albay incl. Burias Is., Camarines Sur, southern portion of Camarines Norte, and Catanduanes - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Camarines Norte, Southern Quezon, Eastern Capiz, Northeastern Iloilo, northernmost part of Leyte incl. Tacloban City and Biliran Is., and rest of Eastern and Western Samar - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Leyte, Northern Cebu, northernmost part of Negros Occidental, central part of Iloilo, rest of Capiz, Aklan, Northern Antique, Romblon incl. Tablas Is., Marinduque, eastern portions of Laguna and Rizal, central part of Quezon and rest of Southern Quezon - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Jan 16...0300 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.7N 130.5E)
About: 555 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 600 km east-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 23 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Southwest @ 16 kph
Towards: Eastern Visayas
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to move west to west-southwestward during the next 24 hours...turning to west-northwest on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the central to the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Saturday morning through the afternoon...and will make landfall along the northern shores of Eastern Samar, just north of Borongan City by late Saturday afternoon.
TS Mekkhala (Amang) will keep its strength within the next 24 hours...and will rapidly weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) during the remainder of the forecast outlook as it moves in an unfavorable environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph on Sunday morning.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains strength...shifts slightly to west-southwest across the western part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 175 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM JAN 17: 11.5N 127.0E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Shifting to northwest...cruising along Burias Passage...and weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after traversing the northern part of Samar...about 55 km southwest of Legaspi City [8AM JAN 18: 12.8N 123.4E @ 55kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens further over Central Luzon...about 55 km north-northeast of Metro Manila [8AM JAN 19: 15.1N 121.1E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Jan 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.7º N Lat 130.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 520 km ENE of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 525 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 645 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 705 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 730 km ESE of Sorsogon City
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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