for Friday, 16 January 2015 [9:23 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 16 January 2015
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 16 January 2015
Tropical Storm MEKKHALA (AMANG) continues with its westerly slow forward motion over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...maintaining its strength and remains a threat to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the northern shores of Eastern Samar between 4 to 7 PM on Saturday (Jan 17).
This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..
Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Samar, Northeastern Leyte incl. Tacloban City, Eastern and Southern Bicol - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Bicol Region Northeastern Panay, Northern Negros, Northern Cebu, Camotes Islands, Rest of Leyte incl. Biliran Island, and Surigao Del Norte incl. Dinagat and Siargao Islands - beginning Saturday morning (Jan 17) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Jan 16...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.7N 131.8E)
About: 695 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 745 km east-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 730 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 6 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern Visayas
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to continue to move generally westward, gaining speed during the next 24 hours...and will turn slightly to west-northwest during the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the central to the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Saturday morning through the afternoon...and will make landfall along the northern shores of Eastern Samar, just north of Borongan City by late Saturday afternoon.
TS Mekkhala (Amang) will slowly strengthen within the next 24 hours...and will gradually weaken during the remainder of the forecast outlook as it starts to encounter unfavorable environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 75 kph by Saturday early morning.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens slowly as it moves west across the western part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 285 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM JAN 17: 11.5N 128.0E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerging over Samar Sea...weakens after traversing the northern part of Samar...about 45 km west-southwest of Catarman, Northern Samar [2AM JAN 18: 12.4N 124.2E @ 65kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further into a Tropical Depression while passing over Bicol Region and Quezon Province...about 75 km east-northeast of Metro Manila [2AM JAN 19: 14.9N 121.6E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Jan 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.7º N Lat 131.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 655 km ENE of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 670 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 790 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 840 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 870 km ESE of Sorsogon City
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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