Friday, July 12, 2013

Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) Update #012


for Friday, 12 July 2013 [1:20 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday 12 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 12 July 2013

Powerful Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) inching closer to the Yaeyama Islands...will pass south of Ishigaki City in the next few hours. Inner rainbands with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) spreads across Yaeyama and Miyako Islands.

Residents and visitors along Batanes Group of Islands, Taiwan, Yaeyama and Miyako Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12:00 noon today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over the northermost part of the Philippine Sea...about 185 km south-southeast of Ishigaki City or 430 km northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Taiwan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).


Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 12 hours...turning northwest to north-northwest between 12 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (Huaning) will pass to the south of Yaeyama Islands late this afternoon...and will make landfall along the Northern Taiwan - just north of Hualien City after midnight on Saturday (approx 2-4am). By Saturday noon, the typhoon will be over the Taiwan Strait and will make its final landfall over Fujian Province, just in the vicinity of Fuzhou City, China on late Saturday afternoon or evening. Throughout Sunday, the cyclone will be moving along the rugged terrain of China or along the Fujian-Zhejiang-Jiangxi border.

Soulik (Huaning) will likely to re-intensify slightly back to Category 3 within the next 12 hours prior in making landfall over Northern Taiwan. Advance intensity forecast shows the system starting to gradually weaken as it passes over Northern Taiwan on Saturday morning and will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while over mainland China on Sunday due to the frictional effects of land...and dry air entering the system.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY NOON: Over Taiwan Strait, approaching the coast of Fuzhou Province (Southeastern China)...about 120 km southeast of Fuzhou, China [12PM JULY 13: 25.5N 120.3E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Weakens to a TS...rapidly dissipating over Mainland China...about 490 km west-southwest of Shanghai, China [12PM JULY 14: 29.3N 116.8E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED SMALL EYE - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea) and some smaller islands. Affected Areas: The islands of Yaeyama incl. Ishigaki and Miyako. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea), smaller islands, and landmass. -- Affected Areas: Northern, Eastern & Central Taiwan, and the islands of Batanes, Ryukyus incl. Okinawa. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Yaeyama and Miyako Islands and Taiwan today until Saturday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southeastern China, Ryukyu and Okinawa Islands, and Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu July 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 23.1º N Lat 125.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km SSE of Ishigaki City
Distance 2: 370 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 415 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 425 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 430 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 455 km SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 7: 495 km ENE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 8: 675 km SE of Fuzhou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Yaeyama Is.-Northern Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Sat Morning [2-7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 905 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 45 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY SOULIK (HUANING)...go visit our website @:


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