Thursday, July 18, 2013

TS CIMARON (ISANG) Update #008


for Thursday, 18 July 2013 [3:40 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 18 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 18 July 2013

Tropical Storm CIMARON (ISANG) approaching the coast of Eastern Guangdong...landfall expected later today. Rainbands spreading across the area.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of Cimaron (Isang).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12:00 noon today, the center of TS Cimaron (Isang) was located near the coast of Eastern Guangdong...about 90 km southeast of Shantou City, China or 325 km east-northeast of Hong Kong...currently moving north-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr in the general direction of Eastern Guangdong.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center. Cimaron (Isang) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Cimaron (Isang) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).


TS Cimaron (Isang) is expected to continue moving north-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Cimaron (Isang) will reach the coast of Eastern Guangdong later this afternoon or evening. By Friday noon, Cimaron (Isang) will be over the southern part of Jiangxi Province in Southern China.

Cimaron (Isang) will maintain its strength within the next 3 hours...and will weaken due to land interaction. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system gradually weakening into a 55-km/hr TD early Friday as the system moves overland...dissipating into an area of low pressure by noontime Friday.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY NOON: Just an area of low pressure moving across Mainland China...about 450 km west-northwest of Fuzhou, China [12PM JULY 19: 27.0N 114.9E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The rest of the coastal areas of Guangdong and Southern Fujian, Southern part of Taiwan Strait, and the Northern part of the South China Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy) along areas to the east and near the center of Cimaron (Isang).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu July 18, 2013
Class/Name: TS Cimaron (Isang)
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km SE of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 205 km SSW of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 310 km W of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 325 km ENE of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 550 km WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 24 kph
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS CIMARON (ISANG)...go visit our website @:


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