WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 11 July 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 11 July 2013
Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) has weakened during the past 12 hours as it jogged quickly westward...threat to Yaeyama Islands and Northern Taiwan increases.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Yaeyama and Miyako Islands, Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...about 585 km southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa or 990 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west with an accelerated forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Taiwan-Yaeyama Islands Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 215 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) will resume moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...turning northwesterly through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Soulik (Huaning) will pass close to the south of Yaeyama Islands Friday afternoon...and make landfall over Northern Taiwan, passing over or very close to Taipei early Saturday morning before entering Taiwan Strait. On Saturday evening, the typhoon will be making its final landfall over Fujian Province, just to the northeast of Fuzhou City, China. Throughout Sunday, the cyclone will be moving along the China Mainland or along the Fujian-Zhejiang-Jiangxi border.
Soulik (Huaning) will likely re-intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours. Advance intensity forecast shows the system starting to weaken as it passes over Northern Taiwan on Saturday morning and downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while over mainland China on Sunday morning.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY MORNING: Regains strength as it approaches the Yaeyama and Miyalp Islands...about 270 km southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [6AM JULY 12: 22.9N 126.3E @ 220kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Passing over Northern Taiwan...gradually weakens...about 15 km northwest of Taipei, Taiwan [6AM JULY 13: 25.1N 121.5E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a TS...rapidly dissipating over Mainland China...about 282 km west-northwest of Wenzhou, China [6AM JULY 14: 28.6N 117.9E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAGGED EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu July 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 22.1º N Lat 131.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 585 km SE of Naha Intl. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 595 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 605 km SE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 765 km ESE of Ishigaki City
Distance 5: 990 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 995 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,015 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 8: 1,040 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph
Present Movement: West @ 28 kph
Towards: Northern Taiwan-Yaeyama Area
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Sat Morning [5-7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 945 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
_____________________________________________________________________________>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SOULIK (HUANING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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