WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON SOULIK (07W) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 July 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 July 2013
SOULIK (07W) still intensifying rapidly over the Western Pacific Ocean...nears Super Typhoon strength...expected to enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Yaeyama and Miyako Islands, Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (07W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (07W) was located over the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...about 1,050 km southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa or 1,498 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Taiwan-Yaeyama Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 220 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers. Soulik (07W) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (07W) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Soulik (07W) is expected to maintain its west-northwest track through the next 48 hours...turning northwesterly by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Soulik (07W) will enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today...and will be passing very close to the Yaeyama Islands late Friday afternoon. On Saturday morning, the typhoon will be very near the coast of Northern Taiwan.
Soulik (07W) will continue to intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours, becoming a Super Typhoon later today. Advance intensity forecast shows the system starting to weaken as it moves closer to Northern Taiwan on Friday through Saturday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a Super Typhoon while inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility...about 621 km southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [5AM JULY 11: 21.9N 131.6E @ 240kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it approaches Yaeyama and Miyako Islands...about 294 km southeast of Ishigakijima [5AM JULY 12: 23.0N 126.6E @ 220kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Passing close to Northern Taiwan...weakens to Category 3 as it turns to the NW...about 74 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [5AM JULY 13: 25.2N 122.3E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
40-KM CLEAR EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Soulik (07W).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed July 10, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (07W)
Location of Eye: 21.1º N Lat 136.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 649 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1,050 km SE of Naha Intl. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 4: 1,055 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 5: 1,060 km SE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 6: 1,296 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 7: 1,498 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 1,574 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Taiwan-Ishigakijima Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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