Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Typhoon SOULIK (07W) Update #004


for Tuesday, 09 July 2013 [9:00 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 09 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 July 2013

Typhoon SOULIK (07W) continues to rapidly intensify as it turns west-northwest during the past 12 hours....expected to enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before noon tomorrow.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ishigakijima, Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (07W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (07W) was located over the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...about 1,306 km east-southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa or 1,751 km east of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Taiwan-Ishigakijima Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 70 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers. Soulik (07W) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (07W) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).


Typhoon Soulik (07W) is expected to maintain its west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (07W) will enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before Wednesday noon...and will be passing very close to the Ishigakijima and the Yaeyama Island Chain on Friday afternoon.

Soulik (07W) will continue to intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours, becoming a Category 3 Typhoon on Wednesday. Advance intensity forecast shows the system reaching Category 3 strength with wind speeds of 215 km/hr on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Enters the northeastern border of the PAR...intensifying into a Category 3 Typhoon...about 850 km southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [5PM JULY 10: 21.4N 134.2E @ 205kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches Category 4 strength as it approaches Ishigakijima...about 393 km south-southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [5PM JULY 11: 22.9N 129.1E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: About to pass very close to Ishigakijima...weakens to Category 3...about 52 km east-northeast of Ishigaki City [5PM JULY 12: 24.7N 124.8E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAGGED EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Soulik (07W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue July 09, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (07W)
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 138.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 396 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 572 km SSW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 732 km WNW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 4: 1,315 km SE of Naha Intl. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 5: 1,317 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 6: 1,322 km SE of Okinawa City
Distance 7: 1,751 km E of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 1,043 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Taiwan-Ishigakijima Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)


CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION: __________________________________________________________________________________________________




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY SOULIK (07W)...go visit our website @:


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