Tuesday, July 16, 2013

TD 08W (ISANG) Update #003


for Tuesday, 09 July 2013 [8:10 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 July 2013

Tropical Depression 08W (ISANG) has accelerated slightly while moving closer to the coast of Aurora, Isabela and Cagayan.

This depression will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, parts MiMaRoPa, Sulu Sea, and Western Visayas tonight. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon incl. Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of 08W (Isang).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TD 08W (Isang) was located over the Central Philippine Sea, near the east coast of Aurora...about 170 km east of Casiguran, Aurora or 230 km north-northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte...currently moving northwest with an increased forward speed of 15 km/hr in the general direction of Cagayan-Batanes Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. . 08W (Isang) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 300 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 08W (Isang) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


TD 08W (Isang) is expected to continue moving northwest to north-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours...turning north to north-northeast between 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 08W (Isang) will pass along the northeastern tip of Cagayan on Wednesday afternoon, passing over or very close to Port Santa Ana...and will be crossing the Balintang Channel, very close to Calayan Island on Wednesday evening. On Thursday noon, 08W will be making landfall along Southern Taiwan...and should make another landfall over Southeastern China on Friday afternoon.

08W (Isang) will continue to slowly intensify within the next 2 days...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Wednesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system reaching winds of about 95 km/hr on Thursday evening...maintaining this strength before making landfall over Southeastern China on Friday afternoon or evening.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a TS as it moves across the Balintang Channel...about 35 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan [6PM JULY 17: 19.2N 121.8E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Along the western coast of Taiwan after making landfall over Southern Taiwan...intensifying to a strong Tropical Storm...about 135 km north of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [6PM JULY 18: 23.8N 120.3E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Making landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China...about 115 km south-southwest of Ningbo, China [6PM JULY 19: 29.0N 120.9E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Polillo Island, Eastern Shoreline of Quezon-Aurora-Isabela-Cagayan, and the Central Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 08W (Isang).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue July 16, 2013
Class/Name: TD 08W (Isang)
Location of Center: 16.0º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 180 km SE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 225 km ENE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 4: 230 km NNE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 5: 240 km NE of Polillo Island
Distance 6: 250 km NE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 270 km NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 8: 270 km NNE of Metro Naga
Distance 9: 275 km SE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 10: 320 km SSE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 11: 335 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph
Towards: Cagayan-Batanes Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 300 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)










>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TD 08W (ISANG)...go visit our website @:


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