Tuesday, July 16, 2013

TD 08W (ISANG) Update #002


for Tuesday, 09 July 2013 [3:31 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 July 2013

Tropical Depression 08W (ISANG) has intensified slightly as it drifts slowly across the Central Philippine Sea...threatens Extreme Northern Luzon. Its outermost rainbands continues to affect the Bicol Region and the eastern coast of Quezon including Polillo Island.

This depression will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across parts MiMaRoPa, Sulu Sea, and Western Visayas today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon incl. Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of 08W (Isang).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12:00 noon today, the center of TD 08W (Isang) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 260 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 240 km northeast of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur...currently moving north-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 05 km/hr in the general direction of Cagayan-Batanes Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. . 08W (Isang) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 300 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 08W (Isang) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


TD 08W (Isang) is expected to continue moving northwest to north-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours...turning north between 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 08W (Isang) will pass over the northeastern tip of Cagayan on Wednesday morning, passing over or very close to Port Santa Ana...and will be crossing the Balintang Channel, very close to Calayan Island on Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday noon, 08W will be passing very near the southwestern coast of Taiwan...and will make landfall along Fujian Province in Southeastern China, just to the NNE of Fuzhou City on Friday noon.

08W (Isang) will continues to slowly intensify within the next 2 days...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today or Wednesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system reaching winds of about 85 km/hr on Thursday...maintaining this strength before making landfall over Southeastern China on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY NOON: Strengthens into a TS as it moves across the Balintang Channel...about 70 km southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan [12PM JULY 17: 18.9N 122.0E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Continues to strenthen while passing very near the southwestern coast of Taiwan...about 40 km west of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [12PM JULY 18: 22.6N 119.9E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Making landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China...about 100 km north-northeast of Fuzhou, China [12PM JULY 19: 26.8N 119.9E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Polillo Island, Eastern Coast of Quezon, and the Central Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 08W (Isang).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Tue July 16, 2013
Class/Name: TD 08W (Isang)
Location of Center: 15.4º N Lat 124.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km N of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 190 km NNE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 3: 195 km NE of Siruma, CamSur
Distance 4: 200 km N of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 215 km NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 6: 240 km NE of Metro Naga
Distance 7: 260 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 280 km ENE of Polillo Island
Distance 9: 295 km ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 10: 305 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 11: 375 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 05 kph
Towards: Cagayan-Batanes Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 300 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)










>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TD 08W (ISANG)...go visit our website @:


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