WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 11 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 12 July 2013
Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) has maintained its weakening trend as well as its westerly motion during the past 6 hours...endangers Yaeyama Islands and Taiwan.
Residents and visitors along Batanes Group of Islands, Taiwan, Yaeyama and Miyako Islands, Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over the northermost part of the Philippine Sea...about 440 km south-southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa or 745 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west with a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Yaeyama Islands-Northern Taiwan Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) is expected to move towards the west-northwest during the next 24 hours...turning northwest to north-northwest between 24 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (Huaning) will pass close to the south of Yaeyama Islands by late Friday afternoon...passing along the Northern tip of Taiwan - very close to Taipei after sunrise on Saturday (approx 5-7am). By Saturday noon, the typhoon will be moving across the Taiwan Strait and will make its final landfall over Fujian Province, just to the northeast of Fuzhou City, China on Saturday evening. Throughout Sunday, the cyclone will be moving along the rugged terrain of China or along the Fujian-Zhejiang-Jiangxi border.
Soulik (Huaning) will likely to re-intensify back to Category 3 within the next 12 to 24 hours. Advance intensity forecast shows the system starting to weaken as it passes over Northern Taiwan on Saturday morning and will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while over mainland China on Sunday due to the frictional effects of land...and dry air entering the system.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Regains strength as it passes to the south of Yaeyama and Miyako Islands...about 115 km south-southwest of Ishigaki City, Yaeyama Islands [6PM JULY 12: 23.6N 124.0E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Making landfall over Fuzhou Province in Southeastern China...gradually weakens...about 35 km north-northeast of Fuzhou, China [6PM JULY 13: 26.5N 119.4E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to a TS...rapidly dissipating over Mainland China...about 470 km west-southwest of Shanghai, China [6PM JULY 14: 30.7N 116.5E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
37-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean/Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea) and smaller islands. -- Affected Areas: The islands of Yaeyama incl. Ishigaki, Miyako, and Ryukyus incl. Okinawa. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu July 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 22.4º N Lat 128.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 440 km SSE of Naha Intl. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 460 km SSE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 470 km SSE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 530 km ESE of Ishigaki City
Distance 5: 745 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 755 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 7: 770 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 8: 790 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph
Towards: Yaeyama Is.-Northern Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Sat Morning [5-7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 945 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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