Wednesday, July 17, 2013

TS CIMARON (ISANG) Update #006


for Wednesday, 17 July 2013 [9:20 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 17 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 18 July 2013

CIMARON (ISANG) has maintained its strength as a minimal tropical storm over the Balintang Channel after it passed the island of Calayan.

This storm will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Sea, and Western Panay tonight. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Southern and Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Cimaron (Isang).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Cimaron (Isang) was located over the Balintang Channel...about 140 km northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan or 200 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained near 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Cimaron (Isang) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Cimaron (Isang) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


TS Cimaron (Isang) is expected to continue moving northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Cimaron (Isang) will move along the South China Sea, passing to the southwest of Taiwan on Thursday morning....and make landfall along the eastern part of Guangdong Province in the evening of the same day. By Friday evening, Cimaron (Isang) will be entering over the southern part of Hunan Province.

Cimaron (Isang) will slightly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system reaching winds of about 75 km/hr by early Thursday morning...then will gain more strength (85 kph) before making landfall over Southern China on Thursday evening...and dissipating into an area of low pressure on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Intensisfies further before making landfall over Guandong Province, Southern China...about 75 km east-southeast of Shantou, China [6PM JULY 18: 23.3N 117.4E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens further into a low pressure over Southern China...about 355 km northwest of Shantou, China [6PM JULY 19: 26.3N 115.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The islands of Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes and Ilocos Norte. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Cimaron (Isang).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed July 17, 2013
Class/Name: TS Cimaron (Isang)
Location of Center: 20.0º N Lat 120.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km NW of Calayan Island
Distance 2: 225 km NW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 245 km NW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 165 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 200 km N of Laoag City
Distance 6: 300 km NNW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 345 km NNW of Ilagan City
Distance 8: 600 km N of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS CIMARON (ISANG)...go visit our website @:


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