for Wednesday, 31 July 2013 [3:18 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEBI (JOLINA) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 31 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 31 July 2013
The strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W over the West Philippine Sea, west of Luzon has strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD) internationally named as JEBI (JOLINA). JEBI is a Korean name for a Swallow bird. Its elongated and broad rainbands are bringing rains and thunderstorms across the West Philippine and South China Seas.
This depression will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Sulu Sea, and Western Visayas today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes. Meanwhile, the ITCZ will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Philippines including Metro Manila.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern China and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Jebi (Jolina).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12:00 noon today, the center of TD Jebi (Jolina) was located over the West Philippine Sea, near Scarborough Shoal...about 515 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales or 800 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Hainan Island.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Jebi (Jolina) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Jebi (Jolina) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD Jebi (Jolina) is expected to move northwest for the next 24 hours with a turn to the west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Jebi (Jolina) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this afternoon or evening...moving across the South China Sea on Thursday...and approaching the eastern coast of Hainan Island on Friday.
Jebi (Jolina) will gradually intensify through the next 48 hours as it moves towards Hainan Island...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later this afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system reaching its peak sustained winds of 95 km/hr on Friday.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
THURSDAY NOON: Upgraded to a TS as it exits PAR...about 690 km south of Hong Kong, China [12PM AUGUST 01: 16.0N 114.5E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Becomes a strong TS as it approaches the eastern coast of Hainan Island...about 220 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island [12PM AUGUST 02: 17.9N 112.1E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Weakens after crossing Hainan Island...over the Gulf of Tonkin...about 155 km southeast of Ha Long Bay, Vietnam [12PM AUGUST 03: 19.9N 107.9E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-55 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: West Philippine and South China Seas, and the coastal areas of Zambales. (click here to know more about Rainbands) 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas to the south and near the center of Jebi (Jolina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed July 31, 2013
Class/Name: TD Jebi (Jolina)
Location of Center: 15.1º N Lat 115.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 485 km W of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 515 km WNW of Subic Bay
Distance 3: 700 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 790 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 5: 800 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 815 km SSE of Macau
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Hainan Island
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD JEBI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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