for Wednesday, 31 July 2013 [6:35 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (JOLINA) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 31 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 01 August 2013
JEBI (JOLINA) becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it slows down while moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Its broad rainbands continues to affect the Zambales Coastline, Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, and the West Philippine & South China Seas.
This storm will continue to slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Sulu Sea, and Western Visayas tonight. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes. Meanwhile, the ITCZ will also bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Philippines especially along Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon & Bicol Region.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern China and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Jebi (Jolina).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Jebi (Jolina) was located over the western boundary of the PAR in the West Philippine Sea, just west of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal...about 560 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales or 775 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 9 km/hr in the general direction of Hainan Island.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Jebi (Jolina) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Jebi (Jolina) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Jebi (Jolina) is expected to move northwest for the next 24 hours with a turn to the west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Jebi (Jolina) will be moving across the South China Sea on Thursday evening...and approaching the eastern coast of Hainan Island on Friday evening.
Jebi (Jolina) will continue to intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves towards Hainan Island. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm reaching its peak sustained winds of 95 km/hr on Friday.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
THURSDAY EVENING: Continues to strengthen as it moves across the South China Sea...about 625 km south of Hong Kong, China [6PM AUGUST 01: 16.6N 113.7E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Becomes a strong TS as it approaches the eastern coast of Hainan Island...about 100 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island [6PM AUGUST 02: 18.6N 111.2E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Weakens after crossing Hainan Island...over the Gulf of Tonkin...about 65 km south of Ha Long Bay, Vietnam [6PM AUGUST 03: 20.4N 107.0E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central portion of the South China Sea. OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-55 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, West Philippine and South China Seas, and the coastal areas of Zambales. (click here to know more about Rainbands) 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Jebi (Jolina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed July 31, 2013
Class/Name: TS Jebi (Jolina)
Location of Center: 15.3º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km W of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 560 km WNW of Subic Bay
Distance 3: 655 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 745 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 5: 775 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 785 km SSE of Macau
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 9 kph
Towards: Hainan Island
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JEBI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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