Sunday, June 30, 2013

TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #009


for Sunday, 30 June 2013 [8:47 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 01 July 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) has moved northwesterly while over the West Philippine its threat to the Philippines continues to diminish.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Spratly Islands and Palawan tonight.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over West Philippine Sea...about 208 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 285 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of the Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has recorded 142.0 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).


TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the north-northwest by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will continue to move across the West Philippine Sea tonight and exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning. Rumbia will then be moving across the South China Sea throughout Monday...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Tuesday morning...and will continue to move across China Mainland Tuesday evening.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gain more strength as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas within the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching its peak intensity of 100 km/hr.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Strengthening over the South China Sea, outside of the PAR...about 267 km east-southeast of Haikou, Hainan Island [6PM JULY 01: 19.6N 112.9E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Moving across China Mainland...rapidly dissipating...about 261 km north-northwest of Zhanjiang City, China [6PM JULY 02: 23.5N 109.6E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Western Coast of Luzon. Affected Areas: Zambales and Pangasinan. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun June 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 117.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 208 km WSW of Cape Bolinao
Distance 2: 235 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 3: 268 km WSW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 285 km WNW of Subic Bay
Distance 5: 326 km SW of Vigan City
Distance 6: 363 km WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 800 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 8: 866 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 28 kph
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS RUMBIA (GORIO)...go visit our website @:


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