Thursday, June 20, 2013

TS LEEPI (EMONG) Update #008


for Thursday, 20 June 2013 [7:24 AM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 20 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 20 June 2013

Tropical Storm LEEPI [EMONG] has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...maintains its strength as it heads toward Southern Japan.

This storm together with Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZON, Visayas, Western Luzon, and some parts of the Bicol Region today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) becoming better organized while drifting across over the West Philippine Sea, west of Zambales. Latest dynamic forecast models continues to show the system becoming a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 24 to 48 hours and track north-northeast to northward across the West Philippine Sea toward Southern China. Its developing center was located about 430 km east-northeast of Iba, Zambales (15.2N Lat 116.8E Lon)...with maximum winds of 35 km/hr near the center...moving slowly northward during the past 6 hours. This disturbance has a high chance (>60%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.

Residents and visitors along Ishigaki-Jima, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of LEEPI (EMONG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Leepi (Emong) was located near the northern border of the PAR...about 106 km east-northeast of Ishigaki-JIma or 298 km west-southwest of Naha International Airport, Okinawa...currently moving north with a decreased forward speed of 17 km/hr in the general direction of Southern Kyushu.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Leepi (Emong) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Leepi (Emong) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).


TS Leepi (Emong) is expected to turn north-northeast within the next 12 hours and turn sharply to the northeast to east-northeast between 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Leepi (Emong) will pass well to the northwest of Okinawa tonight...and make landfall over Southern Kyushu (over or very near Kagoshima City) on Friday noon. On Saturday morning, the storm will move back to the open seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Leepi (Emong) is forecast to intensify slightly during the next 12 to 24 hours...reaching its highest wind intensity of 75 km/hr on Friday morning. The storm is likely to start losing strength on Saturday as it encounters cooler sea-surface temperatures and land interaction with the Japanese Island of Kyushu .

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Reaches its peak winds of 75 kph as it turns east-northeast...approaching Southern Kyushu...about 273 km west-southwest of Kagoshima, Japan [5AM JUNE 21: 30.4N 128.1E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves across the open seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean...about 358 km south of Tokyo, Japan [5AM JUNE 22: 32.5N 140.1E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading near the east coast of Taiwan (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: Ishigaki-Jima. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the North Philippine Sea & Ryukyu Islands. Affected Areas: Eastern Taiwan, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and south, and near the center of Leepi (Emong).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu June 20, 2013
Class/Name: TS Leepi (Emong)
Location of Center: 25.1º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 106 km ENE of Ishigaki-Jima
Distance 2: 270 km WSW of Naha Intl. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 3: 298 km WSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 4: 303 km WSW of Okinawa City
Distance 5: 363 km E of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 384 km ENE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 7: 617 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 895 km SW of Kagoshima, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: North @ 17 kph
Towards: Southern Kyushu
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 925 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS LEEPI (EMONG)...go visit our website @:


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