Saturday, June 22, 2013



for Saturday, 22 June 2013 [7:44 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 22 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 23 June 2013

BEBINCA (FABIAN) has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...expected to emerge over the Gulf of Tonkin tonight.

This depression will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Southwestern Guangdong, Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of BEBINCA (FABIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TD Bebinca (Fabian) was located over Northern Hainan...about 54 km east-northeast of Danzhou, Hainan Island or 359 km east-southeast of Ha Long, Vietnam...currently moving west with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr in the general direction of the Gulf of Tonkin and Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Bebinca (Fabian) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Bebinca (Fabian) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).


TD Bebinca (Fabian) is expected to move west-northwest slowly for the next 12 hours...with a turn towards the northwest to north-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bebinca (Fabian) will emerge over the Gulf of Tonkin tonight...and will make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam, very near Ha Long on Sunday evening. The system will be just along the China-Vietnam border on Monday afternoon.

Bebinca (Fabian) is forecast to intensify back to Tropical Storm status within the next 12 to 24 hours, while over the Gulf of Tonkin...and will gradually weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) on Sunday evening as it interacts with the land mass of Northern Vietnam. On Monday afternoon, Bebinca (Fabian) will continue to dissipate and will be just an area of low pressure.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Re-strengthens into a TS as it prepares to make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam...about 80 km east-southeast of Ha Long, Vietnam [5PM JUNE 23: 20.7N 107.7E @ 65kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating along the China-Vietnam border...just an area of low pressure...about 167 km North of Ha Long, Vietnam [5PM JUNE 24: 22.5N 106.9E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAINBANDS - spreading across the western part of the South China Sea, Southwestern China, Northern Vietnam, and the Gulf of Tonkin. Affected Areas: Southwestern Guangdong Province, Hainan Island, Vietnamese cities of Nam Dinh-Hanoi-Hai Phong-Ha Long-Thanh Hoa-Mong Cai. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Bebinca (Fabian).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat June 22, 2013
Class/Name: TD Bebinca (Fabian)
Location of Center: 19.6º N Lat 110.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 54 km ENE of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 59 km SSW of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 61 km NW of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 192 km SSW of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 5: 304 km SE of Mong Cai, Vietnam
Distance 6: 359 km ESE of Ha Long, Vietnam
Distance 7: 383 km ESE of Hai Phong, Vietnam
Distance 8: 417 km ESE of Nam Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 9: 451 km E of Thanh Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 10: 475 km ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph
Towards: Gulf of Tonkin & Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD BEBINCA (FABIAN)...go visit our website @:


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