Saturday, June 29, 2013

TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #005


for Saturday, 29 June 2013 [10:33 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 29 June 2013
Next Update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) gained a little bit of strength as it passed very near Donsol, heading towards Ragay Gulf, Southern Quezon and Metro Manila. Rainbands spreading across Bicol Region, Central and Southern Luzon including Northern Visayas.

This storm will locally enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Palawan, Western Mindanao and Western Visayas tonight.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located very near Donsol, Sorsogon...about 33 km south of Legazpi City, Albay or 345 km southeast of Metro Manila...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 20 km/hr in the general direction of Ragay Gulf and Southern Quezon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Rumbia (Gorio) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).


TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to move northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will traverse Ragay Gulf tonight, passing about 50 km west-southwest of Naga City...and will be crossing Bondoc Peninsula in Southern Quezon around midnight on Sunday. Rumbia will then be passing over or very close to Quezon City-Bulacan Area on Sunday morning between 5:00 to 7:00 am...and traverse Pampanga and Zambales throughout Sunday morning. It will then exit Western Luzon via north of Iba, Zambales around Sunday noontime...and emerge over the West Philippine Sea Sunday afternoon. On Monday morning, Rumbia will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and will make landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Monday evening or Tuesday early morning.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to weaken slightly within the next 12 to 24 hours due to land interaction (Luzon)...but will start to intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours as the system moves back over to sea.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Over the West Philippine Sea...about 181 km west of San Fernando City, La Union [6PM JUNE 30: 16.7N 118.6E @ 65kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Approaching the Southern China...about 168 km south of Hong Kong [6PM JULY 01: 20.8N 114.0E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Dissipating over Southern China...about 377 km northwest of Macau [6PM JULY 02: 24.7N 111.0E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across Western and Central Bicol Region and nearby areas. Affected Areas: Camarines Provinces, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Burias Is., Ticao Is., Romblon, Marinduque, and Bondoc Peninsula. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Central Philippines. Affected Areas: Metro Manila, Central Luzon, CaLaBaRZon, Panay, Northern Negros, Samar, Catanduanes, and Leyte. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 320 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat June 29, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 12.8º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 31 km WSW of Sorsogon City
Distance 2: 33 km S of Legazpi City
Distance 3: 33 km N of Ticao Island
Distance 4: 69 km ESE of Burias Island
Distance 5: 74 km SSE of Iriga City
Distance 6: 104 km SSE of Metro Naga
Distance 7: 148 km SSE of Ragay, CamSur
Distance 8: 268 km SE of Lucena City
Distance 9: 335 km SE of Tagaytay City
Distance 10: 345 km SE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph
Towards: Ragay Gulf and Southern Quezon
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS RUMBIA (GORIO)...go visit our website @:


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