WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM LEEPI (EMONG) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 19 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 19 June 2013
Tropical Storm LEEPI [EMONG] slightly weaken as it turns north-northwest off the Northernmost part of the Philippine Sea...expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight.
This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZON, Visayas, Western Luzon, and some parts of the Bicol Region today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, the new Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) continues to organize and was relocated within the PAR, west of Mindoro. Latest dynamic forecast models show the system becoming a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 1 to 2 days and track northward across the West Philippine Sea. Its developing center was located about 625 km west-southwest of Metro Manila (12.5N Lat 115.6E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center...and was barely moving during the past 6 hours. This disturbance has a medium chance (30-50%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.
Residents and visitors along Ishigaki-Jima, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of LEEPI (EMONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12:00 noon today, the center of TS Leepi (Emong) was located over the Northernmost Philippine Sea...about 427 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 489 km south-southwest of Naha International Airport, Okinawa...currently moving north-northwest with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Ishigaki-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Leepi (Emong) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 935 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Leepi (Emong) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Leepi (Emong) is expected to resume its northward movement within the next 12 hours and turn to the north-northeast to northeast between 24 to 48 hours. It will move further to the east-northeast between 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Leepi (Emong) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight...and pass to the west-northwest of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands on Thursday noon...and move near the coast of Southern Japan (Kyushu-Shikoku-Honshu) on Friday. On Saturday morning, the storm will be over the open seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
Leepi (Emong) is forecast to re-intensify during the next 24 hours...reaching its highest wind intensity of 85 km/hr on Thursday. On Saturday, the storm is likely to start losing strength as it encounters cooler sea-surface temperatures.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY NOON: Reaches its peak winds of 85 kph as it turns northeast to east-northeast, passing to the west-northwest of Okinawa and the Ryukyus...about 207 km northwest of Okinawa, Japan [12PM JUNE 20: 27.8N 126.3E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Starts to lose strength while passing to the south of Shikoku and Honshu, Japan...about 223 km south of Tanabe, Japan [12PM JUNE 21: 31.7N 135.2E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Just barely a Tropical Storm as it rapidly accelerate across the open seas of the Northwest Pacific...about 981 km east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan [12PM JUNE 22: 35.1N 150.5E @ 65kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
ELONGATED RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: Ishigaki-Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-60 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and south, and near the center of Leepi (Emong).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed June 19, 2013
Class/Name: TS Leepi (Emong)
Location of Center: 22.2º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 303 km SSE of Ishigaki-Jima
Distance 2: 427 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 432 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 465 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 489 km SSW of Naha Int'l. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 6: 513 km SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 7: 521 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 8: 523 km SSW of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 9: 550 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 935 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
_____________________________________________________________________________>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LEEPI (EMONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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