Saturday, June 22, 2013



for Saturday, 22 June 2013 [8:26 AM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 22 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 23 June 2013

Tropical Storm BEBINCA (FABIAN) is now approaching Southwestern China as it increases its threat to Hainan Island and Southwestern Guangdong...landfall expected near Haikou, Hainan this afternoon.

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Southwestern Guangdong, Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of BEBINCA (FABIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Bebinca (Fabian) was located over the South China Sea...about 191 km east-southeast of Haikou, Hainan Island or 243 km south-southeast of Zhanjiang, China...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Hainan and the Southwestern tip of Guangdong Province.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Bebinca (Fabian) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Bebinca (Fabian) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).


TS Bebinca (Fabian) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 12 hours...with a turn towards the northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bebinca (Fabian) will traverse Northern Hainan this afternoon passing, very close to Haikou, Hainan...and will emerge over the Gulf of Tonkin tonight. The storm will then make landfall over Northern Vietnam on Sunday morning and will be just along the China-Vietnam border on Monday.

Bebinca (Fabian) is forecast to weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours...becoming just a Tropical Depression (TD) on Sunday and dissipating over land on Monday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens into a TD while over the Gulf of Tonkin...prepares to make landfall over Northern Vietnam...about 67 km south of Mong Cai, Vietnam [5AM JUNE 23: 20.9N 107.9E @ 55kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Dissipating along the China-Vietnam border...just an area of low pressure...about 247 km NW of Hanoi, Vietnam [5AM JUNE 24: 22.8N 104.4E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading over the northwestern part of the South China Sea. Affected Areas Eastern and Northern Hainan: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the western part of the South China Sea and the Gulf of Tonkin. Affected Areas: Southwestern Guangdong Province and the rest of Hainan Island. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Bebinca (Fabian).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat June 22, 2013
Class/Name: TS Bebinca (Fabian)
Location of Center: 19.8º N Lat 112.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 191 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 243 km SSE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 4: 309 km SW of Macau
Distance 5: 345 km SW of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 467 km SE of Mong Cai, Vietnam
Distance 7: 548 km ESE of Ha Long, Vietnam
Distance 8: 670 km ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph
Towards: Northern Hainan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS BEBINCA (FABIAN)...go visit our website @:


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