Thursday, June 20, 2013

TD 94W (FABIAN) Update #001


for Thursday, 20 June 2013 [1:33 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 20 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 20 June 2013

The strong monsoon disturbance (LPA) over the West Philippine Sea, off Scarborough Shoal has strengthened and becomes Tropical Depression 94W [FABIAN]...continues to consolidate as it drifts northeast slowly.

This depression will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZON, and Western Luzon today and tomorrow. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along the western coast of Luzon, from Ilocos Region down to Zambales should closely monitor the development of 94W (FABIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12:00 noon today, the center of the newly-formed TD 94W (Fabian) was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 220 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 290 km northwest of Subic Bay...currently moving northeast slowly.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W (Fabian) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).


TD 94W (Fabian) is expected to move north to north-northwest within the next 12 hours...and then turn towards the northwest to west-northwest between 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 94W (Fabian) will remain over the West Philippine Sea until Friday morning...and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday noon or afternoon. On Saturday noon, the depression will be just along the coast of Western Guangdong in Southern China...nearing landfall just west of Macau.

94W (Fabian) is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours...could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or Friday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY NOON: Becomes a TS as it moves across the South China Sea, outside of PAR...about 362 km southeast of Hong Kong [12PM JUNE 21: 19.6N 116.3E @ 65kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Reaches its peak winds of 75 km/hr as it approaches the shores of Western Guangdong...about 123 km southwest of Macau [12PM JUNE 22: 21.3N 112.9E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Scarborough Shoal. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-63 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south and near the center of 94W (Fabian).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu June 20, 2013
Class/Name: TD 94W (Fabian)
Location of Center: 15.8º N Lat 117.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km WSW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 242 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 3: 268 km W of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 281 km WSW of San Fernando City
Distance 5: 290 km NW of Subic Bay
Distance 6: 306 km WSW of Baguio City
Distance 7: 342 km SW of Vigan City
Distance 8: 378 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 400 km SW of Laoag City
Distance 10: 806 km SSE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: NE Slowly
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD 94W (FABIAN)...go visit our website @:


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