Bushman's Typhoon Blog: June 2013

Sunday, June 30, 2013

TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #009

for Sunday, 30 June 2013 [8:47 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 01 July 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) has moved northwesterly while over the West Philippine Sea...as its threat to the Philippines continues to diminish.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Spratly Islands and Palawan tonight.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over West Philippine Sea...about 208 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 285 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of the Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has recorded 142.0 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the north-northwest by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will continue to move across the West Philippine Sea tonight and exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning. Rumbia will then be moving across the South China Sea throughout Monday...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Tuesday morning...and will continue to move across China Mainland Tuesday evening.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gain more strength as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas within the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching its peak intensity of 100 km/hr.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Strengthening over the South China Sea, outside of the PAR...about 267 km east-southeast of Haikou, Hainan Island [6PM JULY 01: 19.6N 112.9E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Moving across China Mainland...rapidly dissipating...about 261 km north-northwest of Zhanjiang City, China [6PM JULY 02: 23.5N 109.6E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Western Coast of Luzon. Affected Areas: Zambales and Pangasinan. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun June 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 117.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 208 km WSW of Cape Bolinao
Distance 2: 235 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 3: 268 km WSW of San Fernando City
Distance 4: 285 km WNW of Subic Bay
Distance 5: 326 km SW of Vigan City
Distance 6: 363 km WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 800 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 8: 866 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 28 kph
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS RUMBIA (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #008

for Sunday, 30 June 2013 [1:27 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) moving faster across the West Philippine Sea, away from Luzon. Gradual improvement of the weather expected today.

This storm will locally enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Palawan today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12:00 noon today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over West Philippine Sea...about 163 km west-northwest of Subic Bay or 240 km west-northwest of Metro Manila...currently moving west-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 30 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has recorded 142.0 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to move northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will continue to move across the West Philippine Sea this afternoon and exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning. Rumbia will then be moving across the South China Sea throughout Monday...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Tuesday morning.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gain more strength as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas within the next 12 to 36 hours.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY NOON: Strengthening over the South China Sea, outside of the PAR...about 423 km South of Hong Kong [12PM JULY 01: 18.4N 114.1E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Making landfall and moving over land across Western Guangdong (Southern China)...about 90 km north of Zhanjiang City, China [12PM JULY 02: 22.1N 110.6E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Western Luzon. Affected Areas: Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, Western Batangas, Lubang Island, Mindoro Provinces, & Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Sun June 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 15.0º N Lat 118.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 133 km WSW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 163 km WNW of Subic Bay
Distance 3: 180 km SW of Cape Bolinao
Distance 4: 194 km W of Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 5: 216 km WNW of Malolos City
Distance 6: 240 km WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 247 km WNW of Tagaytay City
Distance 8: 945 km SSE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 6 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

NOTE:

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #007

for Sunday, 30 June 2013 [7:31 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday 30 June 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) is now over Corregidor Island after it accelerated to the west-northwest...passing across the provinces of Laguna, Batangas and Cavite early this morning. Stormy weather will continue to prevail across Metro Manila and nearby areas.

This storm will locally enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Palawan today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 am today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over Corregidor Island or over the westernmost part of Manila Bay...about 58 km west-southwest of Metro Manila or 49 km west-northwest of Tagaytay City...currently moving west-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Naval, Biliran Island has recorded 144.8 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Rumbia (Gorio) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to resume moving northwesterly throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will move across the West Philippine Sea this afternoon and exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Monday morning. Rumbia will then be moving across the South China Sea throughout Monday...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Tuesday morning.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gain more strength as it moves across the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea within the next 12 to 36 hours.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Over the South China Sea, outside of the PAR...about 481 km SSE of Hong Kong [6AM JULY 01: 18.1N 115.3E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Making landfall along the coast of Western Guangdong (Southern China)...about 117 km east-northeast of Zhanjiang City, China [6AM JULY 02: 21.8N 111.5E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across National Capital Region & Southern Tagalog Provinces. Affected Areas: Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Pampanga, Tarlac, Southern Zambales, Cavite, Laguna, Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, and Batangas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across West Philippine Sea, Central Philippines. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Northern & Central Luzon, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Northwestern Visayas, Northern Palawan & Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 200 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun June 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 14.3º N Lat 120.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 49 km WNW of Tagaytay City
Distance 2: 58 km WSW of Metro Manila
Distance 3: 60 km SSW of Subic Bay
Distance 4: 64 km NNE of Lubang Island
Distance 5: 64 km SSW of Malolos City
Distance 6: 77 km NNW of Batangas City
Distance 7: 99 km NNW of Puerto Galera
Distance 8: 101 km S of Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 9: 117 km WNW of Lucena City
Distance 10: 302 km WNW of Metro Naga
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)