Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS JELAWAT [LAWIN]

for Monday, 01 October 2012 [7:34 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday October 01, 2012):

Now ending the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): --- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (LAWIN) UPDATE NUMBER 32 [FINAL]
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 01 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropcial Storm JELAWAT (LAWIN) becomes an Extratropical Cyclone...now moving away from Honshu towards the sea south of Kuril Islands.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 20W (Unnamed), a newly-formed system NE of Guam has continued to consolidate, could become a Tropical Storm later today. Its center was located about 219 km NNE of Saipan, CNMI (16.8N 146.9E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 55 kph near the center, moving NW @ 22 kph. Check out the full details on this system by visiting this page.

*This is the last and final update on Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon October 01, 2012
Location of Center: 40.0º N Lat 143.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 262 km (NE) away from Sendai, Japan
Distance 2: 369 km (SSE) away from Sapporo, Japan
Distance 3: 559 km (NNE) away from Tokyo, Japan
Distance 4: 756 km (SW) closer to Kuril Islands
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 72 kph (39 kts)
Towards: Sea south of Kuril Islands
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue accelerating rapidly NE-ward during the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT is expected to pass south of the Kuril Islands later today...and will pass south of Kamchatka Peninsula Tuesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. This storm will continue to decay during the next 24 hours as it moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Accelerating rapidly northeastward...passing to the south of Kamchatka Peninsula...weakens further as it becomes Extratropical...about 534 km South of Kamchatka Peninsula [5AM OCT 02: 49.7N 162.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Honshu and Hokkaido. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Central Honshu and Sea of Japan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 100 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Honshu.. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern and Eastern Luzon, and Eastern Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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