Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA)

for Monday, 15 October 2012 [8:38 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 022
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 15 Oct 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 15 Oct 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) now threatens Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands as it moves very slowly over the North Philippine Sea.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria (23W) continues to track towards Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands during the past 12 hours and has been upgraded from a Tropical Depression (see StormTrack Map for more details)...will continue to intensify today through Wednesday. Its center was located about 649 km south-southeast of Iwo To or 691 km north-northwest of Guam...with winds of 65 km/hr...moving north-northwest at 13 kph. Forecast to pass near Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands on Tuesday...and Maria will not enter the Philippine Sea.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the large eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 980 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 512 km southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently moving north-northwest very slowly with a forward speed of 4 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,055 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and north of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (280 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to move slowly north-northwest to northw during the next 24 to 48 hours...and recurve sharply northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea, but may move closer to Okinawa on Tuesday and Wednesday as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This typhoon may start to accelerate at a faster speed towards the sea south of Japan without any direct effects on Thursday.

This typhoon may re-strengthen slightly during the next 2 days and weaken on day 3.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Moving slowly north-northwest as it maintains its strength...moving closer to Okinawa...about 412 km southeast of Okinawa City [6AM OCT 16: 23.8N 130.6E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: At its closest approach to Okinawa...recurves to the north-northeast...about 338 km east of Okinawa, Japan [6AM OCT 17: 26.5N 131.2E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Rapidly accelerates toward the northeast away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...heading for the sea south of Japan...about 420 southeast of Kagoshima City, Japan [6AM OCT 18: 29.2N 134.0E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

LARGE RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 280 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon October 15, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 23.0º N Lat 131.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 495 km (SE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 504 km (SE) closer to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 512 km (SE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 613 km (SSE) closer to Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 980 km (ENE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 04 kph
Towards: Sea East of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [280 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,055 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/nina22.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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