Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA)

for Thursday, 11 October 2012 [7:13 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday 11 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 12 Oct 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) strengthens slightly while moving very slowly over the North Philippine Sea...likely to turn north tonight. Its westernmost outer rainbands continues to spread across Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands and Northeastern Luzon (Cagayan-Isabela).

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 pm today, the ragged eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 665 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 769 km south of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving west-northwest to northwest with a very slow forward speed of 5 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to turn north-northwest to northward during the next 12 hours with a recurvature to the north-northeast and northeast through 24 hours. Around 48 to 72 hours, Prapiroon (Nina) may continue moving slowly northeasterward across the North Philippine Sea and into the Western Pacific Ocean. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea through Sunday evening.

This typhoon will continue to strengthen during the next 2 days...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a major typhoon (category 3) later tonight or Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Recurves towards the northeast...becomes a major typhoon (category 3)...about 719 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [6PM OCT 12: 20.8N 128.9E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly but maintains its category 3 strength while over the North Philippine Sea...moving northeastward...about 575 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 13: 22.0N 130.6E @ 185kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Weakens to a category 2 typhoon as it enters cooler sea surface temperatures and unfavorable environment...maintains its northeastward track across the open sea...about 598 southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 14: 23.0N 132.3E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

LARGE RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...however its westernmost part continues to affect Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands and Northeastern Luzon (Cagayan and Isabela). Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu October 11, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 19.6º N Lat 128.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 653 km (ENE) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 672 km (NE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 3: 769 km (S) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 665 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 730 km (ENE) closer to Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/nina12.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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