Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MALIKSI [20W]

for Tuesday, 02 October 2012 [11:55 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday October 01, 2012):

Now issuing 12-hrly web and email updates on MALIKSI (20W).

MALIKSI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI UPDATE NUMBER 04
11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) Tue 02 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm MALIKSI (20W) gained a little bit of strength as it tracks north-northwest towards Iwo To and Chichi Jima...likely to pass very close to these islands on Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichi Jima should closely monitor the development of Maliksi (20W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue October 02, 2012
Location of Center: 22.0º N Lat 141.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 317 km (SSE) closer to Iwo To
Distance 2: 509 km (SSE) closer to Bonin Island
Distance 3: 556 km (S) closer to Chichi Jima
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Iwo To and Chichi Jima
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 915 km (495 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
Wunderground StormTrack (for Public): GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MALIKSI (20W) is expected to turn northward during the next 12 to 24 hours...recurving rapidly NNE to NE-ward thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of MALIKSI is expected to pass very close to Iwo To on Wednesday morning...and near Bonin and Chichi Jima Islands on Wednesday evening. By Thursday until Friday, MALIKSI will accelerated across the cooler waters of the Pacific...becoming Extratropical.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 hours...and Maliksi could become a strong Tropical Storm on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center. JELAWAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 915 kilometers (495 nautical miles) across.-->

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Iwo To. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Bonin, Chichi Jima and the Northernmost Marianas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Maliksi (20W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS MALIKSI (20W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Maliksi's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MALIKSI (20W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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