Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SON-TINH (OFEL)

for Thursday, 25 October 2012 [8:51 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 25 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 25 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) has again accelerated rapidly west-northwestward and crossed Mindoro this morning...now emerging over the West Philippine Sea. Its rainbands continues to spread across Central Philippines (from Central Luzon down to Central Visayas).

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Extreme Northern & Central Luzon. Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along the Central Vietnam and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located near the island of Lubang...about 109 km west of Puerto Galera or 163 km southwest of Metro Manila...currently moving west-northwest with a fast forward speed of 30 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine and South China Seas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours with some fluctuations in its forward speed. It will therefore maintain its track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to move across the West Philippine Sea and South China Sea later today...exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday. The storm should then approach the southern part of the Gulf of Tonkin on Saturday...and make landfall along the shores of North-Central Vietnam on Sunday.

This storm is expected to continue intensifying for the next 3 days, while over the West Philippine and South China Seas...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a Typhoon on Friday or Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY NOON: Continuing moving west-northwest across the West Philippine Sea...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and becomes a Typhoon...about 504 km west of Iba, Zambales [12PM OCT 26: 15.3N 115.3E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Gathering strength while over the South China Sea, moving closer to the Gulf of Tonkin...about 173 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island [12PM OCT 27: 16.9N 110.4E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Just along the shores of Central Vietnam...at peak forecast wind speed of 150 km/hr...about 272 km south-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam [12PM OCT 28: 18.6N 106.4E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Mindoro, Batangas, Marinduque, Bataan, and Lubang Island. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Metro Manila, Central and Southern Luzon, Rest of Bicol Region, Central Visayas, Calamian Group, Northern Palawan, Sulu Sea and Western Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Mindoro, Marinduque, Lubang Island, Batangas and Bataan. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Palawan and the Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu October 25, 2012
Class/Name: TS Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 13.4� N Lat 120.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 49 km (SSW) closer to Lubang Island
Distance 2: 109 km (W) away from Puerto Galera
Distance 3: 113 km (WSW) away from Batangas
Distance 4: 125 km (SW) away from Tagaytay City
Distance 5: 130 km (W) away from Calapan City
Distance 6: 155 km (NW) away from San Jose, Occ.Mindoro
Distance 7: 157 km (NNW) away from Coron, Palawan
Distance 8: 159 km (SSW) away from Subic Bay
Distance 9: 163 km (SW) away from Metro Manila
Distance 10: 211 km (S) away from Iba, Zambales
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel06.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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