Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GAEMI [MARCE]

for Wednesday, 03 October 2012 [1:59 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday October 03, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on Gaemi (Marce).

GAEMI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI UPDATE NUMBER 04
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 03 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) barely moving over the West Philippine Sea as it gained some strength. Outer rainbands continues to affect the West Coast of Southern Luzon, Metro Manila and Mindoro.

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon (Philippines) and Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed October 03, 2012
Location of Center: 15.4º N Lat 117.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 247 km (W) closer to Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 287 km (WNW) closer to Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 3: 286 km (WSW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 4: 312 km (WNW) away from Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 5: 376 km (WNW) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: West Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (Extreme)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GAEMI (MARCE) is expected to drift south-southeast to south-southwest during the next 24 hours, turning West thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi is expected to remain over the open waters of the West Philippine Sea, just west of Manila and will head toward Vietnam later on the forecast period.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Gaemi could become a minimal Typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. GAEMI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY NOON: Moving very slowly south to south-southwestward across the West Philippine Sea...at near-Typhoon strength...about 258 km (W) closer to Subic Bay [12PM OCT 04: 14.7N 117.9E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Starts to move faster westward...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it becomes a minimal Typhoon...about 570 km (WNW) away from Subic Bay [12PM OCT 05: 14.9N 115.0E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Maintains its track and forward speed...approaching Vietnam...about 290 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [12PM OCT 06: 15.1N 110.7E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from La Union down to Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GAEMI (20W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Gaemi's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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