Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SON-TINH (OFEL) Update #016

for Sunday, 28 October 2012 [9:33 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 28 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 29 Oct 2012

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) has suddenly changed its course as it bears down the coast of Northern Vietnam...may likely make landfall along Hai Phong-Ha Long Bay Area tonight or early Monday.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Southern China. Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam and Southwestern China including Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 pm today, the cloud-filled eye of Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located near the coast of Northern Vietnam...about 86 km southeast of Nam Dinh, Vietnam or 112 km south of Ha Long Bay, Vietnam...currently moving north with a forward speed of 24 km/hr in the general direction of Hai Phong-Ha Long Bay Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be extreme (800 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving northward during the next 24 hours. A gradual decrease in its forward speed is anticipated as the typhoon starts to recurve northeastward to eastward within the next 36 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to reach the coast of Northern Vietnam later tonight...and make landfall in between the cities of Hai Phong and Ha Long Bay late tonight or early Monday morning. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is likely to cross the Vietnamese-Chinese Border on Monday evening and shall be passing close to the north of Mong Cai City around Tuesday afternoon.

This typhoon may lose strength prior to landfall as its circulation interacts with the land terrain of Northern Vietnam and Hainan Island. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is likely to be downgraded into a Tropical Storm once it moves over land across Northern Vietnam on Monday afternoon...and dissipate into an area of low pressure on Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over Northern Vietnam near the Chinese-Vietnamese Border, weakens into a Tropical Storm...about 67 km north of Ha Long Bay [6PM OCT 29: 21.6N 107.0E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Just a dissipating Tropical Depression drifting very slowly eastward...about 44 km northeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [6PM OCT 30: 21.9N 108.0E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Gulf of Tonkin)...very near the coast of Nam Dinh, Vietnam. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting the Vietnamese coastal areas of Nam Dinh and Hai Phong ...and moving over Ha Long Bay later tonight. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Western Part of the Gulf of Tonkin and the eastern and central parts of Northern Vietnam. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the rest of Hainan Island, rest of Gulf of Tonkin, Laos, Central and the rest of Northern Vietnam, and Southwestern China. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 800 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Hainan, Northern Vietnam. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of the rest of Hainan Island, Southwestern China and Central Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun October 28, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Eye: 20.0� N Lat 106.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 86 km (SE) closer to Nam Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 102 km (SSE) closer to Hai Phong, Vietnam
Distance 3: 112 km (S) closer to Ha Long Bay, Vietnam
Distance 4: 117 km (ENE) away from Thanh Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 5: 175 km (NE) away from Thai Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 6: 160 km (SE) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 7: 202 km (SW) closer to Mong Cai, Vietnam
Distance 8: 213 km (NW) away from Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 9: 396 km (NNW) away from Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: North @ 24 kph
Towards: Hai Phong-Ha Long Bay Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [800 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 43 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel16.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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