WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 019
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 14 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 14 Oct 2012
Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) moving erratically during the past 12 hours...drifted east-northeast while still over the North Philippine Sea. Its outermost rainbands continues to spread across Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 am today, the eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 931 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 629 km south-southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently moving east-northeast slowly with a forward speed of 5 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 140 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (400 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to move slowly northeast to north-northeastward during the next 24 hours...and then turn north-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea, but may move closer to Okinawa on Wednesday and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
This typhoon may still gain a little bit of strength during the next 3 days before it weakens. This weakening trend of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun October 14, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 21.6º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 606 km (SSE) away from Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 620 km (SSE) away from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 629 km (SSE) away from Okinawa City
Distance 4: 760 km (SSE) away from Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 931 km (ENE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph
Present Movement: ENE @ 05 kph
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com
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