Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA)

for Thursday, 11 October 2012 [7:24 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thursday 11 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Thursday 11 Oct 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) maintains its strength while moving slowly over the North Philippine Sea.

Meanwhile, cloudy skies with on-and-off rains or thunderstorms associated with Prapiroon's southwesternmost outer bands will affect the Bicol Region and Quezon Provinces including the Polillo Island Group today.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the cloud-filled eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 740 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 835 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving west-northwest with a slow forward speed of 11 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 12 hours with a recurvature to the north to north-northeast through 24 hours. Around 48 to 72 hours, Prapiroon (Nina) is forecast to move slowly on a steady northeasterly motion across the North Philippine Sea/Western Pacific Ocean. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea through Sunday.

This typhoon will continue to intensify during the next 2 days...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a major typhoon (category 3) later today.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Starts to recurve north to north-northeast...becomes a major typhoon (category 3)...about 699 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [6AM OCT 12: 20.2N 128.7E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its category 3 strength...completes its recurvature over the North Philippine Sea...moving towards the northeast...about 818 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [6AM OCT 13: 21.4N 129.8E @ 205kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Loses strength as it enters cooler sea surface temperatures and unfavorable environment...maintains its northeastward track across the open sea...about 550 southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6AM OCT 14: 22.7N 131.3E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu October 11, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 19.1º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 740 km (ENE) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 742 km (ENE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 3: 835 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 767 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 809 km (ENE) closer to Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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