Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SON-TINH (OFEL)

for Wednesday, 24 October 2012 [1:42 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 24 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 24 Oct 2012

Son-Tinh (Ofel) becomes a Tropical Storm and moved quickly northwestward...now over the east coast of Southern Leyte. This storm is expected to make landfall over Leyte this afternoon and emerge over the Sibuyan Sea early tonight. Stormy weather now occurring across the Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and Bicol Region.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Metro Manila, Southern Luzon including Southern Tagalog Provinces. Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 45 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along the Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located over Leyte Gulf or just along the east coast of Southern Leyte...about 56 km east of Maasin City, Southern Leyte or 81 km south-southeast of Tacloban City...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Leyte and Sibuyan Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to slightly accelerate northwest to west-northwestward during the next 24 hours and will continue to maintain this track through the next 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected make landfall over Leyte this afternoon and pass very close to Ormoc City...and traverse the northern tip of Cebu (very near Bogo City) tonight. By Thursday, Son-Tinh (Ofel) may be passing close to the Northern Coast of Panay, passing close to Roxas City and Boracay Island Resort during the morning (approx 5-6 AM) and should be traversing Mindoro, passing in between Calapan and San Jose in the afternoon. On Friday and Saturday, Son-Tinh (Ofel) shall be moving into the West Philippine Sea-South China Sea area, moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

This storm is expected to slowly intensify as it moves across the Sibuyan Sea in Northern Visayas during the next 12 24 hours...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a powerful Tropical Storm on Friday while over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY NOON: Making landfall over Mindoro...just along the coast of Mindoro Oriental...about 47 km northeast of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro [12PM OCT 25: 12.7N 121.4E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Becoming a strong Tropical Storn as it moves faster across the West Philippine Sea...about 419 km west of Subic Bay [12PM OCT 26: 14.7N 116.4E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching the east coast of Vietnam at near typhoon intensity...about 406 east of Da Nang, Vietnam [12PM OCT 27: 16.2N 112.0E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Samar and Leyte Provinces, Bohol and Northern Cebu, Surigao Del Norte, Dinagat and Siargao Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Bicol Region, Masbate, the Rest of Visayas, Northern and Eastern Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near and north of the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern and Central Visayas including Northern Mindanao. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Eastern and Southern Luzon, and Northern Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed October 24, 2012
Class/Name: TS Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 10.5º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 56 km (E) closer to Maasin City
Distance 2: 81 km (NNW) away from Surigao City
Distance 3: 84 km (SSE) closer to Tacloban City
Distance 4: 95 km (SE) closer to Ormoc City
Distance 5: 123 km (S) closer to Borongan City
Distance 6: 152 km (ESE) closer to Bogo City
Distance 7: 155 km (ENE) closer to Metro Cebu
Distance 8: 223 km (ESE) closer to Cadiz City
Distance 9: 273 km (SSE) closer to Masbate City
Distance 10: 299 km (SE) closer to Roxas City
Distance 11: 402 km (ESE) closer to Boracay
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph
Towards: Leyte and Sibuyan Sea
CPA [ETA] to Tacloban: This Afternoon [2PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel02.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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