Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GAEMI [21W]

for Tuesday, 02 October 2012 [2:53 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday October 02, 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on GAEMI (21W).

GAEMI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI UPDATE NUMBER 01
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 02 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm GAEMI (21W) newly-formed over the West Philippines Sea, just outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Outer rainbands affecting the West Coast of Luzon including Metro Manila. GAEMI is a Korean name for "Ant".

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon (Philippines) and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of Gaemi (21W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue October 02, 2012
Location of Center: 16.4º N Lat 115.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 96 km (W) closer to P.A.R.
Distance 2: 523 km (W) away from San Fernando City
Distance 3: 525 km (WNW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 4: 598 km (SE) away from Hainan, China
Distance 5: 643 km (WNW) away from Metro Manila
Distance 6: 769 km (ENE) away from Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: South @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 520 mm (Extreme)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GAEMI (21W) is expected to continue drifting SSE to Southward during the next 2 days, turning westward to WNW thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi is expected to remain over the open waters of the West Philippine Sea as it heads toward Vietnam for the next 3 days.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Maliksi could become a strong Tropical Storm on Thursday.

GAEMI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Moving very slowly SSE-ward across the West Philippine Sea...strengthens slightly...just along the Western Boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [11AM OCT 03: 15.7N 115.7E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Enters PAR as it moves westward...remains over the West Philippine Sea, far away from land...intensifying [11AM OCT 04: 15.0N 115.5E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Accelerating across the West Philippine Sea, towards Vietnam...exits PAR...about 610 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [11AM OCT 05: 15.1N 113.8E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from Ilocos Provinces down to Batangas, and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (21W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GAEMI (20W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Gaemi's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GAEMI (21W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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