Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SON-TINH (OFEL) Update #017

for Monday, 29 October 2012 [8:53 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 29 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Monday 29 Oct 2012

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) now moving across Northern Vietnam, just north of Ha Long Bay...dissipating over land. This system made landfall over Hai Phong, Vietnam last night and continues to produce heavy rains across Northern Vietnam and the Gulf of Tonkin.

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam and Southwestern China should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5 am today, the center of Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located over Northern Vietnam...about 33 km north of Ha Long, Vietnam or 54 km north-northeast of Hai Phong, Vietnam...currently moving northeast with a forward speed of 17 km/hr in the general direction of the Chinese-Vietnamese Border.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly decreased to 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to move slowly east-northeast to eastward during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to pass very close to the north of Mong Cai, Vietnam later this morning and move over Southwestern China by Tuesday morning.

This typhoon will rapidly lose strength, weakening into a Tropical Storm later this morning...and into a Depression tonight. Son-Tinh (Ofel) will dissipate into an area of low pressure on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Over Southwestern China...just a Tropical Depression dissipating over land...about 83 km northeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [5AM OCT 30: 22.0N 108.6E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - just north of Ha Long Bay. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Ha Long District. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Northeastern portion of Northern Vietnam. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the northern part of Hainan Island, the northern part of the Gulf of Tonkin, the rest of Northern Vietnam, and Southwestern China. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Vietnam. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Hainan Island, Southwestern China and Central Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon October 29, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 21.3� N Lat 107.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 33 km (N) away from Ha Long, Vietnam
Distance 2: 54 km (NNE) away from Hai Phong, Vietnam
Distance 3: 106 km (WSW) closer to Mong Cai, Vietnam
Distance 4: 129 km (ENE) away from Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 5: 130 km (NE) away from Nam Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 6: 208 km (NNE) away from Thanh Hoa, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NE @ 17 kph
Towards: Vietnamese-Chinese Border
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel17.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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