Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA)

for Tuesday, 09 October 2012 [8:40 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 09 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 09 Oct 2012

PRAPIROON (NINA) becomes a typhoon as it moves west-southwest slowly across the North Philippine Sea...remains far away from land.

Meanwhile, rains with isolated squalls (locally known as "Subasko") and thunderstorms associated with a moderate northerly surface windflow will continue to affect the Bicol Region and Samar Provinces today.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Okinawa should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 1102 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1096 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan and is currently moving west-southwest slowly with a forward speed of 13 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers from the center. These winds will remain over the open sea for the next three days, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to resume moving on a slow west to west-northwest track during the next 24 hours with a turn to the northwest and north-northwest through 48 hours. Around Day 3, Prapiroon (Nina) may start to recurve northeasterly across the North Philippine Sea. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will remain over the open sea through Friday.

Continued strengthening of its wind speed is expected during the next 3 days as the system continues to move over warm sea surface temperatures...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a category 2 typhoon on Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Moving west-northwest...becomes a category 2 typhoon...about 898 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6AM OCT 10: 18.1N 130.7E @ 160kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Approaching Category 3 status, turns northwest to north-northwest...about 804 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [6AM OCT 11: 19.4N 129.6E @ 175kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 3 typhoon as it starts to recurve towards the northeast...remains over the open sea...about 812 east of Basco, Batanes [6AM OCT 12: 20.6N 129.8E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue October 09, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 17.7º N Lat 132.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 1073 km (ENE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 1096 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1102 km (ESE) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1155 km (E) closer to Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1156 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Present Movement: WSW @ 13 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 feet
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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