Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GAEMI [MARCE] - Update #007 [New Format]

for Thursday, 04 October 2012 [1:14 PM PhT]

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 04 October 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 04 October 2012

Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) has been relocated east of its previous position as revealed on latest visible satellite images...has been moving slowly westward during the past 6 hours. Its outer rainbands continues to affect and bring occasional to widespread rains across the Western parts of Southern & Western Luzon including Bataan, Zambales, Mindoro and Metro Manila.

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon (Philippines) and Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) was relocated about 236 km closer to Subic Bay or 324 km away from Metro Manila and is currently moving slowly west towards the West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have further decreased to 75 km/hr with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. Gaemi (Marce) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Gaeme (Marce) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Gaemi (Marce) is expected to continue moving west-southwest to westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, accelerating more to the West through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi (Marce) is expected to remain over the open waters of the West Philippine Sea, just west of Luzon as it heads toward Vietnam later in the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall over Vietnam on Sunday.

Some re-strengthening of its wind speed is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Gaemi (Marce) could become a strong tropical storm on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY NOON: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea...intensifying...about 344 km away from Subic Bay, Zambales [12PM OCT 05: 14.7N 117.1E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Starts to move faster westward...already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...still gaining strength...about 576 km closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [12PM OCT 06: 14.8N 113.7E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Weakens to a tropical depression and starts dissipating after making landfall over Vietnam...about 135 km closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [12NN OCT 07: 14.9N 108.4E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from La Union down to Zambales, Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu October 04, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce)
Location of Center: 14.9º N Lat 118.1º E Lon (Relocated)
Distance 1: 211 km (WSW) closer to Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 236 km (W) closer to Subic Bay
Distance 3: 271 km (SW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 4: 272 km (WSW) away from Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 5: 324 km (WNW) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: West Slowly
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM/WEATHER.COM.PH TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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