Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MALIKSI [20W]

for Tuesday, 02 October 2012 [10:00 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday October 01, 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on MALIKSI (20W).

MALIKSI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI UPDATE NUMBER 03
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 02 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

MALIKSI (20W) strengthens into a Tropical Storm as it moves toward Iwo To and Chichi Jima...large outer rainbands affecting the whole of the Marianas.

Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichi Jima should closely monitor the progress of Maliksi (20W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue October 02, 2012
Location of Center: 19.9º N Lat 144.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 214 km (NW) away from Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 553 km (NNW) away from Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 611 km (SSE) closer to Iwo To Is.
Distance 4: 728 km (NNW) away from Guam, CNMI
Distance 5: 815 km (SSE) closer to Chichi Jima
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Iwo To and Chichi Jima
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 915 km (495 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MALIKSI (20W) is expected to continue moving NW to NNW-ward during the next 12 to 24 hours w/ a northward to NNE-ward turn thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of MALIKSI is expected to pass very close to Iwo To on Wednesday morning...and near Bonin and Chichi Jima Islands on Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Maliksi could become a Typhoon early Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Turning NNW to Northward while passing very close to Iwo To...strengthens into a strong Tropical Storm...about 115 km SSW of Iwo To [5AM OCT 03: 23.8N 141.0E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Recurves to the NNE as it becomes a minimal Typhoon...passing near Chichi Jima...about 226 km North of Chichi Jima [5AM OCT 04: 29.0N 141.6E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it accelerates across cooler waters...just a Tropical Storm...about 546 km East of Tokyo, Japan [5AM OCT 05: 35.2N 145.7E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Marianas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of Maliksi (20W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS MALIKSI (20W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Maliksi's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MALIKSI (20W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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