Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA)

for Monday, 15 October 2012 [6:58 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 024
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 15 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 Oct 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) has drifted westward while still over the North Philippine Sea...continues to interact (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with Tropical Storm Maria.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria (23W) has accelerated its north-northwest movement towards Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands. Its center was located about 356 km south of Iwo To or 855 km north-northwest of Saipan...with winds of 95 km/hr...moving north-northwest at 28 kph. Forecast to pass near Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands on Tuesday.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 pm today, the big eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 962 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 541 km southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently drifting westward with a slow forward speed of 4 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 130 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 325 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,055 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to resume moving slowly north-northwest to north during the next 24 to 36 hours...and recurve sharply northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea, but could move closer to Okinawa on Wednesday...after it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday. This typhoon may start to accelerate at a slightly faster speed towards the sea south of Japan without on Thursday.

This typhoon is likely to gain strength during the next 24 hours...and may start losing strength within 48 to 72 hours.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Moving slowly north-northwest as it intensifies...moving closer to Okinawa...about 443 km south-southeast of Okinawa City [6PM OCT 16: 23.5N 130.7E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: At its closest approach to Okinawa...recurves to the north-northeast to northeast...about 337 km southeast of Amami Is., Ryukyus [6PM OCT 17: 26.7N 132.3E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Rapidly accelerates toward the northeast away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...heading for the sea south of Japan...about 470 south of Tanabe, Japan [6PM OCT 18: 29.5N 136.0E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

110-KM. BIG EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon October 15, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 22.6º N Lat 131.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 521 km (SE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 538 km (SE) closer to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 541 km (SE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 654 km (SSE) closer to Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 962 km (ENE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Sea East of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,055 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/nina24.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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