Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SON-TINH (OFEL)

for Thursday, 25 October 2012 [8:51 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 25 Oct 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 25 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) has jogged to the northwest and intensified...now over Romblon...likely to make landfall over Mindoro Oriental on or before noon today. Its rainbands has expanded and are now covering almost the entire Philippine Islands.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Extreme Northern Luzon. Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 45 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along the Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located in the vicinity of Romblon and Sibuyan Islands...about 47 km southeast of the municipality of Romblon or 88 km east-northeast of Boracay...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 17 km/hr in the general direction of Romblon-Mindoro Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to resume moving west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours with some fluctuations in its forward speed. It will therefore maintain its track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to pass very close to Romblon this morning and make landfall over Mindoro Oriental on or before noontime. The storm will then traverse Mindoro Occidental this afternoon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea early tonight. By Friday noon, Son-Tinh (Ofel) will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it becomes a Typhoon and is forecast to make landfall over Central Vietnam on Sunday afternoon.

This storm is expected to continue intensifying once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea within the next 12 to 24 hours...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a Typhoon on Friday or Saturday while over the West Philippine-South China Sea Area.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Moving west-northwest over the West Philippine Sea...farther away from the Philippines...becomes a Typhoon...about 323 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [6AM OCT 26: 14.6N 117.3E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Gathering strength while over the South China Sea, exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 326 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island [6AM OCT 27: 16.5N 112.0E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Bearing down the shores of Central Vietnam...at peak forecast intensity of 150 km/hr...about 190 km north-northwest of Hue, Vietnam [6AM OCT 28: 18.2N 107.4E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Mindoro, Romblon, Batangas, Marinduque, Lubang Island, Northern Panay, Boracay and Masbate. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Metro Manila, Central and Southern Luzon, Rest of Bicol Region, the Rest of Visayas, Northern Palawan, Sulu Sea and Western Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Mindoro, Marinduque, Batangas, Northern and Central Visayas including Boracay, Romblon and Masbate. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Eastern and Southern Luzon, and Northern Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu October 25, 2012
Class/Name: TS Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 12.3� N Lat 122.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 47 km (SE) closer to Romblon
Distance 2: 79 km (NNW) away from Roxas City
Distance 3: 88 km (ENE) closer to Boracay
Distance 4: 89 km (SW) away from Burias Is.
Distance 5: 109 km (W) away from Masbate City
Distance 6: 150 km (SSE) closer to Boac, Marinduque
Distance 7: 158 km (SSW) away from Metro Naga
Distance 8: 163 km (E) closer to San Jose, Occ.Mindoro
Distance 9: 178 km (N) away from Iloilo
Distance 10: 188 km (SE) closer to Calapan City
Distance 11: 192 km (NNW) away from Bacolod City
Distance 12: 205 km (SSE) closer to Lucena City
Distance 13: 227 km (SE) closer to Puerto Galera
Distance 14: 233 km (SE) closer to Batangas City
Distance 15: 303 km (SSE) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 17 kph
Towards: Romblon-Mindoro Area
CPA [ETA] to Mindoro: This Morning [9AM-12NN PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel05.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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