Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SON-TINH (OFEL)

for Wednesday, 24 October 2012 [8:04 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 24 Oct 2012
Next Update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday 25 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) currently traversing Leyte...passing very close to Ormoc City. Rainbands continues to spread across the Visayas, Bicol Region, Metro Manila, Southern Luzon and Northern Mindanao.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon. Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 45 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along the Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located off Western Leyte...about 11 km east of Ormoc City or 47 km southwest of Tacloban City...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of Sibuyan Sea and Romblon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving northwest to west-northwestward during the next 24 hours and will continue to maintain this track through the next 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to emerge along the coast of Western Leyte this evening and traverse the Sibuyan Sea. By Thursday, Son-Tinh (Ofel) may pass close to the Southern Coast of Masbate, passing near Roxas City during the early morning hours (approx 1-3 AM)...in between Boracay and Romblon by mid-morning (approx 6-8 AM) and crossing Mindoro in the afternoon. On Friday and Saturday, Son-Tinh (Ofel) shall be moving into the West Philippine Sea-South China Sea area, moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and approaching the Southern Coast of Hainan Island.

This storm is expected to slowly intensify as it moves across the Sibuyan Sea in Northern Visayas during the next 12 24 hours...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a powerful Tropical Storm on Friday while over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Over the West Philippine Sea...moving away from Mindoro Occidental and Lubang Island...about 179 km west-southwest of Manila [6PM OCT 25: 13.8N 119.5E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Becomes a strong Tropical Storm as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 663 km west of Dagupan City [6PM OCT 26: 16.0N 114.1E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Just along the southern coast of Hainan Island, China...at near typhoon intensity...about 79 south of Sanya, Hainan [6PM OCT 27: 17.5N 109.4E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Samar and Leyte Provinces, Northern Cebu, Camotes Islands, Biliran Islands, Northern Panay, Masbate, Sorsogon, and Ticao Island. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Quezon Provinces, Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, the Rest of Visayas and Eastern Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern and Central Visayas including Romblon and Masbate. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Eastern and Southern Luzon, and Northern Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed October 24, 2012
Class/Name: TS Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 11.0� N Lat 124.7� E Lon
Distance 1: 11 km (E) closer to Ormoc City
Distance 2: 47 km (SW) away from Tacloban City
Distance 3: 68 km (N) away from Maasin City
Distance 4: 76 km (E) closer to Bogo City
Distance 5: 100 km (SW) away from Borongan City
Distance 6: 117 km (NE) away from Metro Cebu
Distance 7: 153 km (ENE) closer to Cadiz City
Distance 8: 188 km (SSE) closer to Masbate City
Distance 9: 228 km (ESE) closer to Roxas City
Distance 10: 316 km (SE) closer to Romblon
Distance 11: 321 km (ESE) closer to Boracay
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph
Towards: Sibuyan Sea-Romblon
CPA [ETA] to Romblon: Thursday Morning [5-6AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel03.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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