Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GAEMI [MARCE] - Update #006 [New Format]

for Thursday, 04 October 2012 [9:21 AM PhT]

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 04 October 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 04 October 2012

Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) remains almost stationary over the West Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours. Its outer rainbands continues to affect and bring occasional to widespread rains across the Western parts of Southern Luzon including Bataan, Zambales, Mindoro and Metro Manila.

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon (Philippines) and Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) was located about 258 km away from Subic Bay or 346 km away from Metro Manila and is currently drifting very slowly west-southwestward.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 95 km/hr with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Gaemi (Marce) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Gaeme (Marce) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Gaemi (Marce) is expected to drift slowly west-southwest to westerly during the next 12 to 24 hours, accelerating more to the West thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi (Marce) is expected to remain over the open waters of the West Philippine Sea, just west of Luzon and will head toward Vietnam later in the forecast period.

Some strengthening of its wind speed is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Gaemi (Marce) could become a strong tropical storm on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea...intensifying...about 431 km away from Subic Bay, Zambales [6AM OCT 05: 14.6N 116.3E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Starts to move faster westward...already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...near typhoon strength...about 456 km closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [6AM OCT 06: 14.7N 112.2E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a tropical storm as it makes landfall over Vietnam...about 168 km away from Hue, Vietnam [6AM OCT 07: 15.0N 107.8E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from La Union down to Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu October 04, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce)
Location of Center: 14.9º N Lat 117.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 230 km (WSW) away from Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 258 km (WNW) away from Subic Bay
Distance 3: 285 km (WSW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 4: 292 km (W) away from Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 5: 346 km (WNW) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM/WEATHER.COM.PH TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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