Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GAEMI [21W]

for Tuesday, 02 October 2012 [7:44 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday October 02, 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on GAEMI (21W).

GAEMI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI UPDATE NUMBER 02
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 02 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm GAEMI (21W) has slightly strengthened while moving southeast during the past 6 hours...likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. Outer rainbands continues to affect the West Coast of Luzon including Metro Manila.

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon (Philippines) and Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (21W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue October 02, 2012
Location of Center: 16.0º N Lat 115.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 490 km (W) closer to Dagupan City
Distance 2: 495 km (WSW) closer to San Fernando City
Distance 3: 467 km (WNW) closer to Iba, Zambales
Distance 4: 637 km (SE) away from Hainan, China
Distance 5: 603 km (WNW) closer to Metro Manila
Distance 6: 801 km (E) away from Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: SE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (Extreme)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GAEMI (21W) is expected to continue drifting southeast to south-southeast during the next 2 days, turning west-southwest to West thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi is expected to remain over the open waters of the West Philippine Sea as it heads toward Vietnam for the next 3 days.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Gaemi could become a strong Tropical Storm on Thursday.

GAEMI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving very slowly SE-ward across the West Philippine Sea...strengthens more...enters the Western Boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 365 km (W) closer to Iba, Zambales [5PM OCT 03: 15.2N 116.6E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit PAR as it moves westward slowly...approaching typhoon status...about 494 km (WNW) away from Subic Bay [5PM OCT 04: 14.9N 115.7E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating across the West Philippine Sea, towards Vietnam...about 492 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [5PM OCT 05: 15.2N 112.7E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from Ilocos Provinces down to Batangas, Metro Manila and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (21W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GAEMI (20W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Gaemi's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GAEMI (21W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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