Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SON-TINH (OFEL) Update #015

for Sunday, 28 October 2012 [1:54 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SON-TINH (OFEL) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 28 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 28 Oct 2012

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) slowing down as it approaches the coast of Northern Vietnam...Deteriorating weather conditions with extreme rainfall event expected over the area.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Guangdong Province (China). Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam including Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11 am today, the eye of Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located over the Gulf of Tonkin...about 139 km east of Vinh, Vietnam or 168 km southeast of Thanh Hoa, Vietnam...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 11 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be extreme (800 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving northwest with a turn to the north during the next 24 hours. A gradual decrease in its forward speed is anticipated as the typhoon starts to recurve northeastward to eastward within the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to reach the coast of Northern Vietnam later this afternoon...and make landfall near the cities of Thanh Hoa and Nam Dinh late tonight. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is likely to pass very close to Nam Dinh on Monday noon, Hanoi on Monday evening and over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border by Wednesday noon.

This typhoon may lose strength prior to landfall as its circulation interacts with the land terrain of Northern Vietnam and Hainan Island. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is likely to be downgraded into a Tropical Storm once it moves over land across Northern Vietnam on Monday afternoon...and dissipate into an area of low pressure on Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Over Northern Vietnam very near Nam Dinh City, weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon...about 21 km west of the city [11AM OCT 29: 20.4N 106.0E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Rapidly weakens into a Tropical Depression as it drifts very slowly east-northeastward...about 100 km east-northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam [11AM OCT 30: 21.3N 106.7E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipated over land...just an area of low pressure over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border...about 198 km east-northeast of Hanoi [11AM OCT 31: 21.6N 107.6E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Gulf of Tonkin)...not yet affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Gulf of Tonkin)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will reach the shores east of Thanh Hoa and Nam Dinh Cities later this afternoon. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Western Hainan, Central part of the Gulf of Tonkin and the Coastal Areas of Northern Vietnam. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the rest of Hainan Island, rest of Gulf of Tonkin, Eastern Laos, Central and Northern Vietnam, and Southwestern China. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 800 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Hainan, Northern Vietnam. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of the rest of Hainan Island, Southwestern China and Central Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun October 28, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Eye: 18.8� N Lat 107.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 137 km (E) closer to Cua Lo, Vietnam
Distance 2: 139 km (E) closer to Vinh, Vietnam
Distance 3: 168 km (SE) closer to Thanh Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 4: 177 km (ESE) cloesr to Thai Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 5: 182 km (WSW) away from Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 6: 197 km (SSE) closer to Nam Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 7: 262 km (WNW) away from Sanya, Hainan
Distance 8: 263 km (NNW) away from Hue, Vietnam
Distance 9: 275 km (SSE) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: NW @ 11 kph
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [800 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/ofel15.gif

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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