Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GAEMI [MARCE] - Update #013 [New Format]

for Thursday, 04 October 2012 [1:14 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued: 11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 06 October 2012
Next Update: 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 06 October 2012

Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) approaching the coast of Southeastern Vietnam...expected to make landfall north of Nha Trang City just after sunset today. Its rainbands continues to spread across Southern and Southeastern Vietnam, with deteriorating weather conditions expected in the next few hours.

Residents and visitors along Vietnam and Cambodia should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) remains over the sea...about 225 km east-northeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam and is currently moving west-southwestward with a forward speed of 26 kph in the general direction of Southeastern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. These winds will be felt along the shores of Southeastern Vietnam this afternoon and through the evening. Gaemi (Marce) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Gaeme (Marce) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Gaemi (Marce) is expected to continue moving west to west-southwestward throughout the forecast period, with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi (Marce) will be approaching the shores of Southern Vietnam this afternoon...and will make landfall just north of Nha Trang City in Vietnam right after sunset or early tonight. Gaemi (Marce) is forecast to traverse the mountainous terrain of Southern Vietnam late tonight and cross Cambodia on Sunday.

A possible slight strengthening of its wind speed (about 85 kph) is expected before it makes landfall over Vietnam. Gaemi (Marce) is likely to dissipate rapidly once it crosses Vietnam and Cambodia.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipating along the central part of Cambodia...just a Tropical Disturbance (LPA)...about 159 km north-northeast of Phnom Penh, Cambodia [11AM OCT 07: 12.8N 105.7E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southeastern Vietnam (from the south of Da Nang down to Nha Trang). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southern Vietnam and the eastern part of Cambodia. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat October 06, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce)
Location of Center: 13.3º N Lat 111.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km (ENE) closer to Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 433 km (SE) away from Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 434 km (NW) away from Pagasa Island, Spratlys
Distance 4: 510 km (SE) away from Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 544 km (ENE) closer to Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 6: 1100 km (WSW) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WSW @ 26 kph
Towards: Southeastern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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